I don’t like to bet on the unseen but there are several factors about this race that makes it more likely than in 2012. Obama managed in 2012 to keep just enough of his demographic advantage to win even while losing independents. Trump in many polls is getting nearly twice as many independents as Romney if you go back and compare exit polls. He’s also has an advantage equal to or exceeding Clinton’s advantage with women. Men turned out at a slightly lower rate than women in 2012. Trump has potential to increase the men’s vote share. I know first hand that Trump appeals to blue color workers in ways that Romney never could. Southwest Virginia which till recent history was solid Democrat Trump is actually winning while losing elsewhere in the state though Virginia polling hasn’t been very good and should be suspect. Here is the example of the Cucinelli race.
The country is gone…
Even if Trump wins it is just delayed
The First George Bush started the long decline
Tossed the Reagan revolution under the bus the first day
All he had to do was continue to cut the federal government
NOVA is ‘Rat Central; Too many Potomacs live there...