[Yaelle]

I wish instead of sitting back as if Trump had already won, FReepers could get focused. If this is true, that NH could be flipped, and we could get that one Maine elector, then we could eke out a win. Then we could all focus on NH and maybe have some effect. Lots of us live in states that will not flip, like CA, so we can focus on NH.

[Wallace T.]

Trump needs Ohio and Florida. Some combination of Michigan, Wisconsin, or Pennsylvania would put him over the top. New Hampshire would be nice, but Trump has more appeal in the Rust Belt states. Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania qualify as Rust Belt. The problem is that the Republican governors of Ohio and Wisconsin are at best lukewarm toward Trump and will not use their authority to suppress voter fraud. The governorship of Pennsylvania is in Democrat hands, and Philadelphia is a swamp of electoral corruption.

Florida should be safe for Trump. Blacks will not turn out in the same numbers for Hillary Clinton as they did for Obama. South Florida has many ex-New Yorkers and New Jerseyites, a large number of whom come from the same demographic as Trump: white, non-Jewish, second and third generation Americans. Trump is a part-time Florida resident as well. Combined with the Southern orientation of the Florida Panhandle and North Florida and Cuban voters around Miami, the Sunshine State should be safe.

I would not write off Colorado. I think both Gary Johnson and Jill Stein will do better than average, taking voters who would not be Trump supporters and, in the case of Stein, would gravitate towards the Democrats.