The USC Dornsife/LA Times DAYBREAK POLL (C-44.2, T-44.0)

USC Dornsife/LA Times ^ | 8/23/16 | USC Dornsife/LA Times

[SamAdams76]

Isn't that the one where the Democrats were oversampled?

Always pay attention to the internals of every poll. It is easy to turn a Trump lead into a deficit just by subtly adjusting the sample sizes.

R +2 vs D +6 causes a large swing. I think one state poll in PA had D +16!

[pgkdan]

A statistical tie is NOT where they want (or need) to be at this juncture in the campaign. They know that Trump will surge towards the end and needed to have a double-digit cushion by now.

Exactly. Hillary is one of the best known political figures in the world. we've been told since around 2000 that her eventual election as President was inevitable. She's been First Lady, Senator and Secretary of State and all she can muster in poll after poll is a measly 40-45%? The woman should be running away with this, but instead she's barely holding on.

[LRoggy]

When Trump keeps his day to the issues he rises. What happened yesterday? The stupid Mika comment.

Stop punching down and he wins this going away.

[setha]

44% is about where shenanigans start happening.

[Sooth2222]

"The last good poll for Trump in VA was pre convention and there were two tied polls."

Same tracking poll pattern as 2012. See the Rand poll pattern in 2012.

https://alpdata.rand.org/?page=election2012

In 2012, after the Republican convention Romney pulled ahead (slightly). After the Democrat convention, Obama pulled ahead.

The difference between now and 2012 is that the poll numbers did not converge again after the Democrat convention.

My conclusions are: Trump was never behind by 15. Bush was behind Dukakis by 17 on one poll in the summer of 1988 and won by a landslide. Clinton is a horrible candidate, if she can open a pre-opened jar of pickles or not, and if she is wearing adult diapers nor not. Trump only began TV advertising on Friday. If Trump is behind by 15 two weeks before the election, that's the time to panic.

[theoilpainter]

I don’t have the time to check the internals- what days rolled off the survey ( they may have been Trump good days) and what were the scores for the past two days? Has there been a change in the pro Trump Black percent of the sample?

[Buckeye McFrog]

44% is about where shenanigans start happening.

Gary Johnson posters are suddenly appearing on telephone poles all over town. The same ones that got the "Mitt Has Three Wives" bumper stickers stuck to them in 2012. Just sayin'

[Parley Baer]

I think these are the normal up and downs with this type of polling.