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The middle class / upper class has a birth rate below replacement level. It is the lower class / welfare class that is having 2.3-3.0 children. That’s population growth among the population we can literally least afford.

I would rather see mandatory long term contraception tied to welfare use. If Mom has to use SNAP, Section 8 housing, Medicaid, then she and every female in the household must receive long term idiot proof contraception like a Norplant or IUD.
When they aren’t reliant on the state in any form through employment or marrying a man who can take care of them, the contraceptives can be removed.
This avoids the irreversibility of sterilization. It encourages but doesn’t mandate marriage, while encouraging women to only have children with men who can support them.
It almost immediately reduces the birth rate among those on welfare, instead of incentivizing it, dramatically reducing welfare costs over the long term while freeing up both personal and public resources for those that are left.
When a 12 year old receives the contraceptive implant, you know she won’t become a 15 year old mother. But if she wants a baby at 19, she has to become self supporting or marry a supportive partner to have a baby.

Contraception is exactly the wrong way to go: it vastly facilitates the cheapening of sex, the easy slide into promiscuity,the obliteration of male responsibility, the non-formation of marital bonds, and the destruction of the intimacy/fertility link that creates couples and keeps them together. It is a veterinary (non)solution to a human problem.

What's needed is precisely the personal self-respect to reject cheap intercourse, and an ethic that strongly encourages marital bonds and the formation of a "marriage culture." This is not something compulsory public policy can do; but at the very least, government programs should not dynamite it and sweep away the pieces, as is done both by the present toxic welfare culture and by your proposed "solution."

"The middle class / upper class has a birth rate below replacement level"

... and has for at least 45 years. Pathetic. They ought to be having normal, Teddy Roosevelt-sized families. Instead, they have the same feeble birth-rate as dying Europe.

Demographic collapse follows as the natural and logical consequence of the rejection of natural sex.

Get used to hearing "Bismillāhi r-raḥmāni r-raḥīm". In ten years it will be the opening prayer in the public schools in Eurabia and in key U.S. school districts. Yeah, Inshallah.