Those are good numbers for Trump, only behind two points... question is ....why am I not comforted it by them?!
Dunno. You should be. Fourth poll in a week showing the race at 3 (USC, UPI, Zogby). Even Reuters shows a 4 point Cankles drop.
ALL of these are showing the same thing: Cankles’ little dog and pony show at the convention is over, and Trump steadily gaining everywhere. As these speeches filter out-—and they will, despite the drive bys-—I expect him to keep moving up.
A tie on election day is about a 2-3 point Trump win because of those afraid to go “on record” to pollsters or others. But more important, the turnout margin (1/2m more GOP in the primaries) combined with WHERE the turnout is (for Dems, CA and NY and IL) means that in the critical states GOP turnout should produce big margins.
Because he was up after the convention and if he were up in the polls now we could put it in the bag.
One important thing to remember in a NATIONAL poll is that a couple of big populous states like NY and CA will skew the numbers from all of the others due to the large numbers of those states. Trump or any Republican would generally lose those anyway, so it is very favorable for Trump across the board.
Then if the pollster is using outdated percentages of Dems, REP, and Ind, which they probably are since this will be a BIG change election, then the results are even more skewed towards the Dem candidate.