And there’s that (late) summer bump for the Democrat! Even with Rasmussen’s flawed LV profile.
If a poll wants to use LV they should thoroughly explain the profile they use. And just asking people is not good enough.
Isn’t a post-convention bump a historically relevant event?
Nearly all national public opinion polling organizations that use Likely Voter samples ask some variation of these two sets of questions to determine who is a likely voter:
For live interviewer-asked questions—
How much thought have you given to the coming presidential election?
How closely have you been following news about the candidates?
Do you plan to vote in the presidential election? How certain are you that you will vote?
Rate your chance of voting in November on a scale of 10 to 1, with 10 being “definitely will vote” and 1 “definitely will not vote.”
How often do you follow what’s going on in government and public affairs?
Have you ever voted in your precinct or election district?
How often would you say you vote?
Do you happen to know where people in your neighborhood go to vote?
In the last election, did things come up that kept you from voting or did you vote?