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Nassim Taleb Warns The Biggest Black Swan Event Of All Is Coming
TMO ^ | 8-11-2016 | Jeff Berwick

Posted on 08/11/2016 8:37:58 AM PDT by blam

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To: proust

I’ll take a Black Forest ham and Swiss on rye instead. With a bit of Gulden’s.


41 posted on 08/11/2016 10:34:03 AM PDT by Noumenon (We owe them nothing: not respect, not loyalty, not obedience.)
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To: DiogenesLamp
Thanks for your thoughts, DL.

No, we can't totally dismiss the notion that Trump is regarded as someone with whom deasl could be struck -- but that perception isn't necessarily bad or possibly unprincipled, is it? Could work in our favor for those on the fence and those who had planned to totally screw us, but might only do so half way -- a net gain for our side of 50% ;-)

I think you have pretty much summed up my thinking in this regard. In the last seven months, I have come to a realization that this very same dynamic was at work in 1860, and is what actually triggered the civil war...

("Global Trading interests", which on the Eastern seaboard meant mostly "European Trade")

In that context there is a tangible parallel, isn't there? Economic and sovereignty considerations are at stake. Today's Globalists are trying to maintain their monopoly and stranglehold on trade policies -- just as back in 1860 (when the battle over "European Trade" was the issue.)

42 posted on 08/11/2016 10:38:45 AM PDT by HangUpNow
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To: HangUpNow

That is a most interesting observation about the war of 1860.


43 posted on 08/11/2016 11:16:30 AM PDT by mutzi 1961
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To: Red Badger

Mein doppelganger—during the home mortgage lending meltdown the feds bailed out Bear, Lehman, Goldman Sachs, Deutsch bank and others, while the American taxpayer took it in the shorts.

When they have to bail *themselves* out, and start running the cash printing presses at Ludicrous speed, that’s when the SHTF.
That’s when we find we have re-financed our colossal debt with our last credit card, when the rest of the world decides that having the dollar as the world currency reserve just isn’t working out.
The last time it changed, from the pound, was after WWII.
A survey of 200 institutional investors - 100 headquartered in mainland China and 100 outside of it - found 53 percent of investors think the renminbi will surpass the U.S. dollar as the world’s major reserve currency. You can say that 50% were Chinese, but we can only spend as Obama has spent, while producing nothing but barristas and service workers for so long before the bottom falls out.
Sailing away on the thin ice of another new day.


44 posted on 08/11/2016 11:18:48 AM PDT by tumblindice (America's founding fathers: all armed conservatives.)
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To: blam

Marketoracle blog has predicted 50 of the last zero black swan events.

They are on a roll.

Do these guys do end times prophecy too?


45 posted on 08/11/2016 11:21:43 AM PDT by Larry Lucido
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To: mutzi 1961; DiogenesLamp
For further CW observations, analysis and facts, please check out DiogenesLamp's post history.

You won't see a better, more detailed and documented overview and fascinating perspective anywhere.

DL, perhaps you can give mutzi 1961 some guidance on the subject. Thanks.

46 posted on 08/11/2016 11:24:38 AM PDT by HangUpNow
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To: HangUpNow
No, we can't totally dismiss the notion that Trump is regarded as someone with whom deasl could be struck -- but that perception isn't necessarily bad or possibly unprincipled, is it? Could work in our favor for those on the fence and those who had planned to totally screw us, but might only do so half way -- a net gain for our side of 50% ;-)

At this point, Trump appears to be the far better bet for us. Hillary is unequivocally evil and ruthless.

In that context there is a tangible parallel, isn't there? Economic and sovereignty considerations are at stake. Today's Globalists are trying to maintain their monopoly and stranglehold on trade policies -- just as back in 1860 (when the battle over "European Trade" was the issue.)

This is what I am seeing. It's just gotten bigger since 1860. It is now more of a global international group of elite who disdain nationality and borders. They are loyal only to themselves and their pursuit of power.

The only thing of which they are certain is that they should rule everyone else, and that they should acquire as much wealth and power as possible.

47 posted on 08/11/2016 11:34:48 AM PDT by DiogenesLamp ("of parents owing allegiance to no other sovereignty.")
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To: tumblindice

Not Lehman.........


48 posted on 08/11/2016 12:17:44 PM PDT by Red Badger (Make America AMERICA again!.........................)
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To: blam
Nassim Taleb Warns The Biggest Black Swan Event Of All Is Coming

What a curious mix of "news" and a religious tradition.
I am also disappointed and puzzled that Nassim Taleb is not identified in the excerpt.

He is the originator of the term, "Black Swan." I thoroughly enjoyed both editions of his eponymous book.

49 posted on 08/11/2016 12:19:40 PM PDT by publius911 (IMPEACH HIM NOW evil, stupid, insane ignorant or just clueless, doesn't matter!)
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To: publius911
He is the originator of the term, "Black Swan." I thoroughly enjoyed both editions of his eponymous book.

OK.
I read the entire article at the link, and the term "Black Swan" is never defined.
For those who have not read or discussed Taleb's book, a Black Swan is an event with two characteristics :

1) It is a negative, profound, universal, has a domino effect never anticipated or even imagined, and...
2) After it occurs, all the pundits and experts claim that the event was so obvious it should have been anticipated.

Taleb is/was an economist.

50 posted on 08/11/2016 12:29:52 PM PDT by publius911 (IMPEACH HIM NOW evil, stupid, insane ignorant or just clueless, doesn't matter!)
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To: HangUpNow
Given this presumption, IS it beyond the realm of possibility that the international banking cabal in concert with the current regime could orchestrate and time a "Black Swan" event to occur between a Trump Election victory and Inaugural Day?

They orchestrate nothing. They are parasites that live off the constant flow of money into markets. They would be hurt the worst by the event. Once the money flow stops they lose their lucrative income and power. The government doesn't want to orchestrate this because then there would be all new people to deal with on wall street and the big fund raisers in the Hamptons would be run by completely different people.

So this event would happen despite the government and the bankers.

Think about it the last event in 2008 half the investment firms on Wall Street should have gone belly up. There should have been a fire sale on houses in the Hamptons. Instead the Feds sent them trillions so they wouldn't have to create a new Rolodex card.

51 posted on 08/11/2016 12:32:13 PM PDT by stig
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To: proust
I thought a Black Swan Event was something that couldn’t be foreseen?

LOL!
Not that it couldn't be foreseen, but rather that it isn't viewed in retrospect. The same thought occurred to me.

By definition, then, when it occurs it must be defined as a Grey Swan?

You've got to read the book to learn why the title was so chosen.

52 posted on 08/11/2016 12:41:32 PM PDT by publius911 (IMPEACH HIM NOW evil, stupid, insane ignorant or just clueless, doesn't matter!)
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To: Lurkina.n.Learnin
I quit reading right there.

So you don't believe that there has been a 30+ year bond bull market?

53 posted on 08/11/2016 12:49:19 PM PDT by Stentor
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To: blam

How could he know about it if it was truly a black swan event?


54 posted on 08/11/2016 12:53:51 PM PDT by WashingtonSource
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To: Stentor

I will admit that I may have a fundamental misunderstanding of “the bond market”. I don’t follow it. I would think that as interest rates go up the yields on bonds would also rise. I was remembering in the early eighties my brother had a T bill that was paying 15%.


55 posted on 08/11/2016 1:53:27 PM PDT by Lurkina.n.Learnin (Hillary Clinton AKA The Potemkin Princess of the Potomac)
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To: Lurkina.n.Learnin

I remember that period.
I had a 13% mortgage...


56 posted on 08/11/2016 1:56:00 PM PDT by nascarnation
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To: LS
This is a fascinating theory that has really got my juices flowing!

Other than the book that you mention, has this theory found an outlet for public consumption? University papers? Online discussions? Obscure Web sites? Anything at all?

Believe me - I'd really like to know!

Thanks!

CA....

57 posted on 08/11/2016 8:57:54 PM PDT by Chances Are (Seems I've found that silly grin again....)
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To: nascarnation

I remember it, too.

Bought my first car at 17 1/4...

CA....


58 posted on 08/11/2016 9:16:22 PM PDT by Chances Are (Seems I've found that silly grin again....)
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To: Chances Are

I am awaiting George Gilder’s new book in the mail in hopes he will lay it out, but not really.

I have a friend who is a finance prof (holds a chair) at Columbia and told him this. He did NOT dismiss it, but like all academic economists wanted a bunch of micro research first.

I admit this kind of flies between other the classical and Meynesian theories. Some monetarists try to focus on the lack of velocity in money, but I see that as a symptom, not the cause. The cause is deflation brought about by inaccurate valuation of productivity increases.


59 posted on 08/11/2016 10:22:13 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually" (Hendrix))
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To: stig
They [the international banking cabal in concert with the current regime] orchestrate nothing.

Just because they are parasites doesn't mean they didn't have the clout to be considered "TO BIG TO FAIL" -- THE reason Dubya and Congress reimbursed these same Wall St parasites with Middle Class wealth back in 2008.

Why wouldn't DC repeat this dirty deed, again citing the "TOO BIG TO FAIL" mantra? ? After all, WHO has been donating big time to Hillary's Clinton Foundation? WHOM does Wall St. pay on both sides of the aisle as insurance for their screw ups? Yup, DC politicians.

The government doesn't want to orchestrate this because then there would be all new people to deal with on wall street and the big fund raisers in the Hamptons would be run by completely different people.

The names may change, but The Game remains the same.

Think about it the last event in 2008 half the investment firms on Wall Street should have gone belly up. There should have been a fire sale on houses in the Hamptons. Instead the Feds sent them trillions so they wouldn't have to create a new Rolodex card.

Exactly. You seem to be making my point. Wall St is tied to the hip with DC. The Game has been exposed; DC ordered the printing presses to run OT to bail out Wall St the last time the market collapsed, NOT Main St. They Fed will simply do it again.

60 posted on 08/12/2016 8:36:26 AM PDT by HangUpNow
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