This is ALWAYS the x factor, cause they never know. No one in 2008 thought turnout would be what it was. McCain was close for a while % wise, but with greater turnout, the percentages got to be huge margins.
It’s the reverse here. The primary suggests that GOP will have a much higher % of “likely” voters so the D/R splits on all these polls are useless. If it’s only 4% (vs. the 6-10 they’ve been running-—or even higher), then Trump wins huge.
Yes, it is certainly possible that a large base of Trump voters will emerge “out of the woodwork.” People that are NOT on any one’s radar at the present time.