Yeah, I knew it came from another source. Satirical or not, though the other factors I mention about energy, voter registration, “juicing” polls are all real.
Yeah, it was pretty obvious that it came from another source and was fake.
I agree there’s probably some of the stuff you mention going on. I think the biggest factor is the enthusiasm gap between the Trump and Hillary camps, which I think can have a real effect on the final numbers without the pollsters picking up on it. They’re measuring intent, not action, and even Hillary “likely voters” may not be enthused enough to actually follow through on election day. I think we saw enthusiasm fake out the polls in the Brexit vote and probably Romney/Obama, and the same very well may happen with Trump. I would guess that Silver is feeing confident right now (though maybe with a nagging sense that something more may be going on than show in the figures...), not suicidal.