This oversamples Ds by 4, plus you have the old “registered voters”-—but with ALL of these polls, the total sample is much bigger, i.e., about 200 larger of “adults” of which “x” are registered voters.
So what is being concealed here is what % of the “final” sample are “adults.” If 10%, that’s big.
Either way, I think right how this is pretty much a tie-—but again, that’s based on 2012 turnout models. Does anyone think Cankles will get the same turnout as Barry? Obama got 66m, Romney 61m.
Can Cankles get 66m? I seriously doubt it. Can Trump exceed 61m? Based on primary turnout, you’d have to guess these numbers will at least be reversed.
So much is unknown.
I went to the Dornsife poll that’s prominent on FR these days and shows Trump winning.
I have to register to get their data. I don’t feel like it today, but I’ll probably do it in the near future.
I fear false data about Trump as much as about the dems. Either one hurts.
1. Raise expectations and then pull out the rug = demoralization.
2. Have you candidate said to be far behind = demoralization.
3. A supposedly close race in which the opponent begins to pull away = demoralization.
All seem designed to depress voter turnout, so your radar is taking you correctly to the turnout models.