I think post DNC it’s closer-—2 points Trump lead. But I also expect much of that will vanish as Cankles voters have to try to maintain enthusiasm.
The key number is 65m. That will win it, easily. Zero got 66m in 2012, Minion 61. No way Cankles gets much over 60m.
I honestly don’t think the DNC helped Hillary at all.. perhaps some loyalists are not a bit more loyal, but the convention was a disaster for her.
Bernie supporters sure aren’t going to flock to her in the wake of DNC Leaks.... most will likely just stay home as they were mostly kids anyway. Some may even turn their disillusionment into general anger at the corrupt system in which case Trump may pick up a few.
Trump literally stole the headlines for an entire day of the DNC convention on Wednesday... so the only real event that was likely to move folks who weren’t already onboard was her acceptance speech, which was nothing that was going to motivate much of anything..
Best thing Hillary could have hoped for was loyal troops uniting a bit tighter, but most of them were already solidly on board, so any gain at all would be very very small at best.
Time will tell, but I really don’t see Hillary managing anything close at the end of the day... I think 60 M would be a miracle for her.