Replies

Dems have huge problems, without adding the Hillary and Trump dynamic to this...

On the basic fundamentals... This election is going to tend Republican.... 8 years of democrat, economy in the tank, and as much as the press won’t admit it a TOXIC president. Yes folks, the electorate has no more desire to see Obama than it has any of the other 8 year termers... Bush or Clinton.... This administration is just too arrogant or stupid and the press too much in the bag to tell them or too fearful.

Obama is less popular today than Bill Clinton was in 2000... His approval numbers are actually below Clinton’s in 2000. Yet the Dems think OBama the magic negro can salvage Hillary and the electorate wants a 3rd term... its a joke, they keep telling themselves.

So, independent of Hillary or Trump dynamic... the election is going to be in Republican’s favor. Now, when you start to add the Trump and Hillary Dynamics, I don’t see ANY way you wind up with anything other than Trump by a large margin.

The press and pundits, are under the delusion that Hillary and Trump are both such bad candidates that the election will wind up simply being a Generic D vs a Generic R, in which case, even with the fundamentals going against the D, they believe it will be close and Hillary may find a way to squeak it out.

They just refuse to understand that we are in a disruptive election cycle, they are refusing to understand just what is going on in the electorate, on both sides of the aisle, and in the middle. This isn’t a generic R vs a generic D, it is a corrupt known D running against a disrupting known, but outsider R who is running against the corruption of the status quo... at a time when the electorate is beyond fed up with the status quo, and ready to remind the political class exactly who owns this country.

I see no way, none, not a single solitary way, that this election doesn’t wind up huge for Trump. He has taken the GOP to task for a lot of their bad NEOCON Policy nonsense, and broken away from policies that have hindered the GOP in much of the rustbelt and north east... while at the same time shining a spotlight on the abject corruption within the political class as a whole.

Just look at the internals of the polling, Consistently, Trump is massively beating Hillary in Independents... like around 20 points winning.... While at the same time Trump is down about 10-12 points from traditional support levels among republicans... and even with this, Trump is tied or slightly ahead in most national polling and more importantly in many many states that Hillary cannot afford to lose, and thats even with HIllary spending 10s of millions in ads, and Trump spending next to nothing.

Look at FL/OH/PA polling... July just ended, and she’s already spent over 50 Million in those states, and she’s polling tied or behind in all of them, except for a recent ludicrous outlier in PA that tried to claim she has a 9 point lead there, which is laughable, not even political pundits on the D side of the aisle here remotely believe that poll is anything near reality.

For Hillary to win, she needs to get about 15% of the independents who have already decided against her, to change their minds, and at the same time not lose any of the traditional D base support (she’s pretty much tapped out in her base, and best she is managing is a tie).

Trump on the other hand is up bit in independents and needs to shore up the base.. by election day his support among republicans will be near traditional R support levels... and He will also continue to target and pick away at the Blue Dog/Blue Collar dems across the rust belt and North East... He’ll take them in other states too, but they are states that were going to be red no matter who was running.

I really think Hillary is sitting currently at a best case scenario of no more than 10 ish states and 100-120 EC votes. Originally I thought her best case was 15is states and 180ish EC votes, but since then her campaign has shown itself to be completely inept, and just let its Convention be about literally everything but her.... Bernie for 2 days, and then Trump literally stole the headlines for an entire day of it as well.

With each passing day she’s moving closer and closer to possibly seeing an 1980 type loss... Her campaign has ZERO momentum, she is a horrible campaigner with no natural ability or talent, and literally has ZERO personal support... she excites no one... her support is basically those that will vote D no matter what... and folks who dont like/distrust Trump.... Trump will close the gap with many voters who question him between now and November....

World events are on Trumps side as well... More terror attacks will happen and Hillary will keep saying don’t blame Muslims.... More murders, rapes and other things will happen by illegals, and Hillary will either ignore them or claim the US needs them... every time Trump will come out looking like a leader and gain more in the polls.

Hillary’s record, that she wants to run on is ABYSMAL... so its hard to see how she is going to change the dynamic with this sort of argument... A 2 term carpet bagger senator and a secretary of state who literally managed to take the dysfunctional middle east and make it an even bigger fustercluck.

She has no emotional hook and her logical hook is failure... She’s got nowhere to go, but slowly down the toilet, and she’s going to take a lot of down ballot folks with her.

Not to mention the next real big event.. the debates. Does anyone, anyone think, that when Alpha Male X Factor Trump is put side by side with Cackles and Cankles in front of the american people that Hillary can come out as the winner in any way shape or form??? Yes, the press will be in cahoots with the D and do all their little tricks they try to pull... and Guess what? Trump will call them out on it, and it won’t matter, if anything Trump will gain with every little trick they try to pull.

Seriously anyone, anyone think Hillary v Trump on live TV is going to end with Hillary in the victors circle? If anything it will just highlight even more forcefully how weak she is at all levels.