In 1980, both campaigns knew by Election Day what was likely to happen (due to the late-breaking, post-debate polls), but the networks were still believing their “too close to call — it’s going to be a long night” routine. Then the first returns came in, and by 8 pm or so, it was all over. (Nancy Reagan had to get RR out of the shower to take Carter’s concession call, at like 5 pm Pacific!) No long night, just long faces in the MSM. Would love to see that again this year.
If the mid atlantic/rust belt states drop the way I expect them to, it will be an early night.. may not be 8pm early, but early.
Thing is, even if Hillary were to somehow pull off Florida and VA.... it won’t matter if Trump takes PA, OH and MI.. let alone WI as well.
I don’t think Hillary has a shot in hell at FLORIDA and I think VA is wishful thinking as well, though I think that one would be more likely than FL.
I also expect Trump to make inroads in New England as well, taking states there no one wants to even thing about possibly going republican.
I expect a very early night, in terms of knowing who the winner is, don’t expect 8pm early... because even if Hillary knew she was drubbed by 20 points nationally at 7pm based on her polling, I wouldn’t expect her to concede immediately.
Time will tell, but I honestly just don’t see a way she can turn her ship around... even the folks who keep saying she “should” win, never really give you a solid argument why... best they offer is some ephemeral she’s more organized and has more money.... That’s not an argument, that’s an observation.
A lot of the Republicans were better organized and had more money, and they all fell like dominoes.
You can look at this race in 2 ways, that are at least based in some reality.
1) Trump and Hillary are both such badly flawed candidates for various reasons, that this is going to boil down to a generic D vs generic R election... the actual candidate doesn’t matter... under this model, electorate should be motivated by general fundamentals, economy, jobs, security... Well, based on this model, D loses, but its a close election. This is where I think most pundits live, they are just too much inside their echo chambers to see anything else... and while the fundamentals of such a race would favor the party out of power with such fundamentals, they believe the discord in the R party probably is such that Hillary has a shot and may even win. (I think this entire view of this election is absolutely WRONG on every level, other than yes, the general fundamentals right now do not favor the democrats, but it is at least an analysis that can be justified at some rational level)
2) This election is a disruptive election, with an electorate who is mad as hell at the political class, and justly so. They are indeed tired of watching the political class sell the nation out, and their jobs and futures etc with it to enrich connected folks etc. In this view of the election, Trump is the disruptor candidate, seen by folks as outside the class that the electorate feels has been screwing them, and his jingoist campaign will connect across party lines and classic affiliations and create a coalition that is not typically seen for any candidate of a particular party in a standard election model. In this view of the election, which is the view I believe represents what is going on, Hillary, being an establishment person, with decades of history of corruption, won’t stand a chance in hell, and will only be able to rely on the folks who always vote for her party, no matter who the candidate is, the independent voter she will lose by huge margins.
Results from the republican and democratic primaries both support the secondary viewpoint, not the first, and internals of most polls also tend to support the latter view of the election, with Trump up in the high teens to 20 points with independents. The only reason this race has remained close so far is because Trump is running about 12 points behind a typical republican nominee among republican voters. There is every expectation that Trump will close most of this historic gap, if not all of it by election day, and that results in a landslide for Trump.
I believe most people who are not part of the elite/establishment viewing this election recognize inherently that this election is the second type... but those inside those circles are just so caught up in their echo chamber they either cannot see it, or are too afraid to buck convention to voice it... so they stick with the first view of the election....