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I have zero evidence to base this on, however:

What if Pence is the pick because he can lock up Indiana?

Seems like a stroke of the obvious, but Indiana borders Ohio.

Kasich isn’t going to play. I think that much is clear. I think he thinks he’s going to hold Ohio hostage - burn the village down to save it.

If you look at a map, I think Trump will take every state around Ohio. Indiana will now solidly be there. WV, NY, MI, KY, probably PA, will all go red.

FL, because of the whackadoodles we have for the GOP in that state, has got to be in play. Perhaps recent events will convince our Jewish friends in that state that maybe its time to stop carrying water for folks that mean to kill you. We’ll see. Florida is nuts.

NY probably goes Trump. Nobody is talking about it, which is weird. How does that not change the tally?

Texas likely goes Trump, but you never know these days. CA, believe it or not, it could go Trump. They will never admit it to a pollster, but they are going to vote for him. Enough is enough for a lot of blue collar types down there.

Maybe Pence is there to lock up Indiana and keep him there to campaign in Ohio. That could be his only job. If he does it, he’s a hero.

Only 49 states are in play, however. WA state will never, ever go red. Not as long as Boeing, MSFT, Google, and Amazon are all here. It’s the evil empire here. Boeing needs the Ds to keep the unions at bay, and I think finally they’ve been able to pull it off.