[wintertime]

I, personally, refuse to have hope. It is too painful for me. Numb is better.

[datricker]

I, personally, refuse to have hope. It is too painful for me. Numb is better.

Probably before Cromnibus I felt this way - I was just working on robots in the garage determined not to think about it - then something happened actually somebody - Donald Trump.

Maybe I'm a big sucker and I'm going to feel crappy and let down again but screw it I like America and I want it back!

So I went back and found some notes I wrote in JIRA (so I gots the proof on the timestamps) on August 15th of last year, after starting to get excited about Trump I think it was the fox news debate that sparked all this - whatever.

But ... - some of it happened! some of it still might! This is why I'm hopeful for the first time in my life some of my predictions are occuring and I'm not naive enough to think that are not driven by what I want to happen - also judging by the timestamp there was probably wine involved.

Be of good spirts!

[Administrator] added a comment - 13/Aug/15 12:38 AM - edited

My Assumptions and Prognostications

Global Assumptions:

• As of today the Democratic party has only two candidates viable - Sanders, Clinton
• 95% Voters (republicans|democrats) -> pissed
• Donald Trump -> $1,500,000,000 to spend over 50 media markets if a state is a media market so $30,000,000 per state he could spend if he was to spend if evenly which he won't do.

  Prove That: Either a Democrat or Republican will win the election seems like a worthless proof lets see where it goes. Given:

  Hillary Clinton -> not on ballot come Iowa. See might be defending herself against some offense that would land me in jail.

  Republicans:

  Trump/Carson you won't like him but he a bit of an organizer you might find this interesting as it seems as like he is doing lots of community organizing from conservative perspective Interesting: minute 7:50 is extremely fascinating and Dr. Carson who is a pediatric neurosurgeon director of John Hopkins for 29 years - He is going to be a factor. http://www.breitbart.com/video/2015/08/12/ben-carson-planned-parenthood-clinics-put-in-black-neighborhoods-to-control-that-population/

  Democrats:

  Sanders??/??? really I have no idea as it looks as though Hillary will be soon leaving the field and Sanders is not a serious candidate to win an election so it will be a total vacuum at this point only trump sanders and carson are truly compelling to me and they are all outsiders. I don't like Sanders and he in the Senate so he isn't truly an outsider.

  Once the shock of Hillary abandoning the campaign dies down the Democrats will be scrambling find some one who fits the outsider mold. Their problem is they will have to go recruit an insurgent versus the republicans nightmare and populist American dream Trump.

  So whoever they pick will almost by default look like they were picked by what the occupy wall street calls the %1. Democrats are going to be faced with a choice of two bad options

  • Pick Bernie and almost any person with a grasp of history, economics could kick his ass (sadly I think even Romney could beat him - thankfully that won't happen.
  • Biden - oh my please that guy is the rights wet dream - admitted plagiarist and juggler of womens body parts
  • Warren -> Hope this is a long shot because I think she could actually win. Her PAC went the Senator Sanders more than likely is what has help fuel his very large ~29K turnouts. I she gets in yes she will get the money, steal bernies supports, and I think receive the ground resource team Obama reserves for themselves. Her problem will be her late entry at least from a CW point of view.

    In her case though the CW will hold because

    • assumption 1: The republicans are boring and trump is destroying them and will be the nominee as such the guy seems to be loaded and having a great time - he is a risk taker and has said he will spend his 500 million in liquid assets. As he is probably loaning him own campaign the money and he is going raise lots of money. The Democrat opponent will be facing over 1 billion dollars of direct Trump Reasources. All of his money willl be spent on media buys (social, traditional,--- whatever).
    • As trump has exposed how the payola system works in washington I think Any ancillary money by which I mean not directly controlled by the Trump campaign is going to dwarf whatever Trumps spends because those establishment payers think/hope that he will see that their 501.3c was ultimately helping him either by negative add buys; however, it takes the money from everyone else.
    • assumption 2: After two term incumbents generally lose. Also nobody other than more wonkish know who she (Warren) is right now if she gets in she better not make any stumbles. That doesn't seem realistic to me as she is a human and campaigns seems to uncomfortably reveal that time and time again.

    This leaves us with a Trump president and Dr. Carson as his vice. The long and short of it is Trump has the resources to put New York in play - while he forces the DNC to fight in each state and endless font of money from Trump himself and then from 501.3c that will rally to him.

    When this happen he will attack D'blasio focusing on the the recent New York Decline the the mayor and president SOS own - so he will win Manhattan, the Bronx, Queen maybe even Brooklyn therefore Trump wins New York and its over.

    Conclusion:

    • Having Trump as the Nominee changes the political calculus - Ohio, Florida, Virginina lose their importance if Trump can take New York - it will be very similar to Reagan winning in California.
    • Traditional early primary states retain their importance
    • RNC/DNC leadership will both be replaced
    • Schumer is the new head of the Democrats in the Senate
    • Boehner and McConnell I think are going to be forced out in an ugly coup

    I'm done being numb - I understand it and respect it as that was me and probably will be again

    I know in a hostage survival situation understanding you will be most likely hurt escaping is the key.