June polls
1968 Humphrey 42, Nixon 37
1980 Carter 39, Reagan 32
1988 Dukakis 52. Bush 38
2000 Gore 47, Bush 41
You’re using data.
Is that allowed in the discussion?
Well you can go on the site and look at the % of each party.
On the poll that shows Hillary at 49 % the demographics were as follows:
Dem 34 %
Republican 27 %
Independent 39 %
Now according to Gallup the party affiliations as of today (June 27) are:
27 % republican
30 % Dem
41 % independent
However in may the same service showed the following at the beginning of May:
31 Republican
30 democratic
37 independent:
How that changed in 2 months is...well almost impossible
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_U.S._states
from that in October 2014, before an election it was:
41 republican
42 democratic
18 Independent
yet 2014 was a blow out for republicans.
I could not find the 2016 party registrations tallied. Kind of odd to say the least. But I did find 2012
55 million republicans (32.5%)
72 million democrats (42.5%)
42 million independents(25.0%)
Obama got 65.9 million votes
Romney got 60.9 million votes
If you look at the primaries this year:
Republican votes: 30,937,353 voters
Democratic voters: 29,883,751 voters
Compared to 2008, which seems to be the most similar comparison election
Primary:
Republican 21,000,000 (approx.)
democratic 35,442,193
national:
Republican: 59,948,323
Democratic: 69,498,516
So it is hard to say exactly what the percentages should be in polls. Based on the primaries the republicans should have more motivated voters in the fall, and an initial cut would tend to indicate they win, unless Trump really piss off the independents.
What I find most interesting is how difficult it was to find how many of each party are registered. I could not find it on line, and I think that would allow one to gauge these polls. My guess is the figures do not support he narrative being pushed that Trump is a loser. I would suspect that we must wait until after the convention for real results that mean much.