[chajin]

If all the Democrats and Republicans who voted in 2012 vote in 2016, Hillary! will win. Trump wins if and only if he can get Republicans-who-stayed-home-in-2012, plus “independents” (read: old-fashioned Democrats) to the polls to vote for him. That is what the polls cannot predict, and at this point in the campaign, neither can we.

[TakebackGOP]

And if he gets new voters, such as the people in the primaries that gave him more votes than any Republican in history.

[FreedomPoster]

You forget that some significant portion of the black community will stay home with Hillary instead of Obama. This is a significant difference between 2012 and 2016. If even 10% actually vote for Trump instead of Hillary, it would be a YUGE earthquake in the electoral landscape.

[LS]

Well, I don’t think Clinton will turn out 90% of the 2012 Dem vote

[WILLIALAL]

The issue is not about how many Dems there are vs Rep in the general election, the issue is what are the percentages of Dems and Reps who actually turn out to vote. The Dem party is made up of various groups which have a very low turn out on election day.

I would like to see the percentages concerning voters who actually turn out and vote. I would think it’s pretty close. There is not a 12% gap between Dems and Reps on election day.

[CapnJack]

Unfortunatly you are correct.

Trump will have to pull in a ton of new voters (eg. Ones who have never voted before and former dem voters).

It is a long shot, but not too likely since people go with “the devil they know”.

[nclaurel]

There are a number of former Republicans who are now Independent who support Trump, but couldn’t stomach the GOPe any longer.

[HiTech RedNeck]

Also, there are several months left to peel away more Democrats and placate more NeverTrump Republicans.

[LouAvul]

My father in law is a yellow dog democrat. He's even gone so far as to say he thinks O'dummy is a good president. But this past weekend he said he's voting republican in the coming election.

There's something in the air, and it's not reflected in the polls.

[lavaroise]

Some minorities who hated Bush might warm up to Trump, despite the media plastering Trump as racist. That however might make undecided sheeples vote Hillary like idiots. It will play on undecided.

Also blacks used to sit out elections if the candidate was not white. They might not be as enthused to vote Hillary, although Obama might help them out.

Now voter fraud and illegals voting is really what is playing out.