Of course we have seen this movie before and the ending does not change no matter how many times we replay it. The electoral college landscape is set up against the Republican nominee and we must acknowledge that the electoral college is simply the starting point.
The problem is compounded in this election because, unlike Romney, Trump does not have adequate money in the till (even assuming he can get it) and he does not have anything resembling an up to speed campaign staff. His time to remedy these potentially fatal deficiencies is running out. Another rarely commented upon factor which could decide this election assuming Trump and bring it close, that is within two or three points, is the utter absence in the Trump of data mining and its application. I have been posting on these threads for years the reports which were originally published by MIT Technology Journal describing the revolutionary application of digital technology to electioneering. It seems clear that if the election is within two or three points the candidate who has mastered this art will prevail.
The Republican national committee claims that it has mastered the art but it made the same claim four years ago and not only did the assurances ring hollow on election day but the party and the candidate were both utterly humiliated when the computers literally crashed on election eve. Trump himself has no such expertise in his camp but there are assurances coming from the Chairman of the National Committee that the Republicans have digital mining completely mastered and they are cooperating with Trump to apply the technology. We shall see.
My fear is that lack of money, the lack of staff, the lack of technology, and the lack of time, singly and combined, present new obstacles to a Republican candidate who already suffers from a huge handicap simply by accepting the party's nomination and carrying the standard.
We are depending on Trump's charisma, the power of his personality, and his unique ability to crystallize an issue and make it understandable and unforgettable to the mass of the voting public. He must identify and crystallize the issues such as immigration trade etc. which make the affirmative case for his election and he must crystallize the evidence which disqualifies Hillary. He must do this in the teeth of a hostile media, yet another obstacle.
We will often hear that we are early in the campaign season. I emphatically disagree. This is the season in which Trump and Hillary, although to well-known figures for decades in American culture, will be defined. Hillary has the money and she is spending it to define Trump. This is a particularly dangerous time for Trump because of Nathan Bedford's first maxim of American politics: all politics in America is not local but ultimately racial. Hillary is defining Trump as a racist and a bigot. If that definition sticks, the obstacles to election will become daunting indeed.
Trump made a great speech to define Hillary, but free media alone is probably not enough. We will often hear that free media might be enough in the primary contest starting with 17 contestants but it is not sufficient for a national election. I think that is clearly true.
As for the general election, we conservatives must always understand that we do not represent the voting public. We know the issues, we know the arguments, we certainly are not swayed by some television commercial which superficially distorts the underlying realities with which we are so familiar. Joe sixpack is an entirely different voting animal. He has feelings rather than convictions, he votes emotionally rather than analytically, he is not a party loyalist or, better, loyal to a philosophy, he is a habitual party line voter disinclined to break habits but when he does so it is for a superficial and likely transitory motivation.
That is not to denigrate the voter, he has other things in life which are more important to him but it does illustrate the power of television and, more recently, the power of digital mining.
There is a great resentment and unease smoldering just below the surface of America. No one is better equipped by virtue of his persona to fan those smoldering embers into a blaze which can win the election. But that is the only way he can win the election.
