Posted on 06/08/2016 6:21:13 PM PDT by SamAdams76
In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85 percent of all photo paper worldwide. Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they went bankrupt.
What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next 10 years – and most people don’t see it coming. Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later you would never take pictures on paper film again?
Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but followed Moore’s law. So as with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a long time, before it became way superior and got mainstream in only a few short years. It will now happen with Artificial Intelligence, health, autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs. Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution. Welcome to the Exponential Age.
Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.
Uber is just a software tool, they don’t own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world. Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don’t own any properties.
Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected. In the US, young lawyers already don’t get jobs. Because of IBM Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90 percent accuracy compared with 70 percent accuracy when done by humans.
So if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90 percent less lawyers in the future, only specialists will remain. Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 times more accurate than human nurses. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.
Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self driving cars will appear for the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted. You don’t want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while driving. Our kids will never get a driver’s license and will never own a car. It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95 percent less cars for that. We can transform former parking space into parks. 1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 100,000 km, with autonomous driving that will drop to one accident in 10 million km. That will save a million lives each year.
Most car companies might become bankrupt. Traditional car companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels. I spoke to a lot of engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; they are completely terrified of Tesla.
Insurance companies will have massive trouble because without accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear.
Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood.
Electric cars will become mainstream until 2020. Cities will be less noisy because all cars will run on electricity. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can only now see the impact. Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil. The price for solar will drop so much that all coal companies will be out of business by 2025.
With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter. We don’t have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.
Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There will be companies who will build a medical device (called the “Tricorder” from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and you breath into it. It then analyses 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world class medicine, nearly for free.
3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies started 3D printing shoes. Spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports. The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large amount of spare parts they used to have in the past.
At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home. In China, they already 3D printed a complete 6-storey office building. By 2027, 10% of everything that’s being produced will be 3D printed.
Business opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, ask yourself: “in the future, do you think we will have that?” and if the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner? If it doesn’t work with your phone, forget the idea. And any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed to failure in the 21st century.
Work: 70-80 percent of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a short time.
Agriculture: There will be a US$100 agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field instead of working all day in their fields. Aeroponics will need much less water. The first Petri dish produced veal is now available and will be cheaper than cow produced veal in 2018. Right now, 30 percent of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows. Imagine if we don’t need that space anymore. There are several startups who will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be labeled as “alternative protein source” (because most people still reject the idea of eating insects).
There is an app called “moodies” which can already tell in which mood you are. Until 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where it’s being displayed when they are telling the truth and when not.
Bitcoin will become mainstream this year and might even become the default reserve currency.
Longevity: Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year. Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it’s 80 years. The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more that one year increase per year. So we all might live for a long long time, probably way more than 100.
Education: The cheapest smart phones are already at $10 in Africa and Asia. By 2020, 70 percent of all humans will own a smart phone. That means, everyone has the same access to world class education. Every child can use Khan academy for everything a child learns at school in First World countries.
We have already released our software in Indonesia and will release it in Arabic, Swahili and Chinese this summer, because I see an enormous potential. We will give the English app for free, so that children in Africa can become fluent in English within half a year.
Now you have desktop printers you can buy off the shelf that have almost the same quality. It's almost cheaper to throw them away and buy another one when the toner cartridges run out!
how hard is it to make a robot
that picks tomatoes?
Is this from the Onion? Or is some Bill Gates technodicks pipe dream?
Please feel free to elaborate.
Don't worry. I wear port protectors.
People,are ot going to give up cars or driving like we always have done. The,only plzces this works are places where theyve done it already , specifically,NYC.
The idea that the grid can be counted on and never fail and screw ip millions of people in vehicles depending on systems to be up all the time. Its just too impossible.
Further just in time cars rdducing car numbers 95% is total bs. It will fail because since nobody owns them, the tradge dy of the commons will occur and nobody will want communal cars and the diseases that come with them.
This is just bs libtard panacea projections that nobody ever thinks of the real world outcomes and downsides. Its like the libtards thst tax something and say projected revenue will be X, and thry are always surprised it is always far below X.
My daughter has been going to school in England. She’s used Airbnb a couple times when traveling. Always worked well.
It’ll be a long time before I trust electric or driverless cars. I like to drive too much to trust it to a computer.
My pastor told me the same thing
THE FUTURE IS NOW!
If I recall we should already have flying cars, the earth should be freezing now, no one dies, no more wars.
They idea is to preserve the files, not alter them. Then they can make pictures anytime. And the dyes in negatives fade, too. Try to get a good color print from Kodak 100 film produced forty years ago ... and good luck.
“I like the concept of having a self driving car. But I like the concept of being able to choose, because I like driving. And having a car that drives you, but belongs to someone else who runs what controls the car is repellent to me.”
DriveApp has detected that you, John Doe, Citizen #OU812 is restricted to a 10 mile travel radius. The destination you have chosen is 22 miles away which is outside of your restricted travel area. Would you like to re-route to a destination within your assigned travel area?
See how JIT cars work when a natural disaster or emerency hits and everyone wants cars but as they claim only 5% of the people can actually get a car because 95% of car numbers are gone.
This isnt going to happen. Kost people want to own their car. They dont want to share with strngers. We have illegals here with diseases that can eff you up for life. Yeah will the elite give up personal cars?
Totally moronic. These predictions deny the reality of the human spirit and the human experience.
I hate using my phone for photos. It’s an Apple but the photos are always blurry. We prefer the separate camera.
Ummmm, decaf is in the orange handled pitcher.
That’s the guy who calls me a couple of times a month to tell me my windows computer is throwing error messages.
But in a good way. Sometimes I'll go over to his place for a beer or two and he'll play me some vintage rock on his turntable. Maybe some Steppenwolf or ELO. It's kind of fun to watch his routine. He'll pull the LP off the shelf, carefully remove the paper sleeve and then carefully extract the vinyl. He'll blow on the vinyl and maybe wipe it down with a cloth. Then he'll mount the record to the turntable and go through all the motions of getting the needle to come down on the right track. Then after a few snaps, crackles and hisses, the rich sound of the vinyl will come over the speakers.
I agree that vinyl records produce a more satisfying sound with a quality hi-fi system but the deal-killer for me is that they aren't very portable.
Kodak was actually one of the early players in digital photography. They produced a professional quality dslr by putting their digital back on a Nikon N90s film camera.
Back when 1.3 megapixels was considered pro level, it was used by a lot of newspaper photographers. That was ample resolution for newspaper photos.
They also produced good quality P&S cameras except they had them made in Japan. I have an old 6mp Kodak, probably around 12 years old. I got it out a few weeks ago and noticed the batteries were all bad. I ordered a couple of new ones and the pictures are indistinguishable from my DSLRs unless you really enlarge them.
I have no idea where they lost their way with digital.
NOW IS THE FUTURE AS OF YESTERDAY!
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