The Future Is Here

Matters India ^ | May 18, 2016 | mattersindia.com

[SamAdams76]

In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85 percent of all photo paper worldwide. Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they went bankrupt.

What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next 10 years – and most people don’t see it coming. Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later you would never take pictures on paper film again?

Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but followed Moore’s law. So as with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a long time, before it became way superior and got mainstream in only a few short years. It will now happen with Artificial Intelligence, health, autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs. Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution. Welcome to the Exponential Age.

Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.

Uber is just a software tool, they don’t own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world. Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don’t own any properties.

Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected. In the US, young lawyers already don’t get jobs. Because of IBM Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90 percent accuracy compared with 70 percent accuracy when done by humans.

So if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90 percent less lawyers in the future, only specialists will remain. Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 times more accurate than human nurses. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.

Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self driving cars will appear for the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted. You don’t want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while driving. Our kids will never get a driver’s license and will never own a car. It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95 percent less cars for that. We can transform former parking space into parks. 1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 100,000 km, with autonomous driving that will drop to one accident in 10 million km. That will save a million lives each year.

Most car companies might become bankrupt. Traditional car companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels. I spoke to a lot of engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; they are completely terrified of Tesla.

Insurance companies will have massive trouble because without accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear.

Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood.

Electric cars will become mainstream until 2020. Cities will be less noisy because all cars will run on electricity. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can only now see the impact. Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil. The price for solar will drop so much that all coal companies will be out of business by 2025.

With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter. We don’t have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.

Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There will be companies who will build a medical device (called the “Tricorder” from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and you breath into it. It then analyses 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world class medicine, nearly for free.

3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies started 3D printing shoes. Spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports. The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large amount of spare parts they used to have in the past.

At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home. In China, they already 3D printed a complete 6-storey office building. By 2027, 10% of everything that’s being produced will be 3D printed.

Business opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, ask yourself: “in the future, do you think we will have that?” and if the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner? If it doesn’t work with your phone, forget the idea. And any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed to failure in the 21st century.

Work: 70-80 percent of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a short time.

Agriculture: There will be a US$100 agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field instead of working all day in their fields. Aeroponics will need much less water. The first Petri dish produced veal is now available and will be cheaper than cow produced veal in 2018. Right now, 30 percent of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows. Imagine if we don’t need that space anymore. There are several startups who will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be labeled as “alternative protein source” (because most people still reject the idea of eating insects).

There is an app called “moodies” which can already tell in which mood you are. Until 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where it’s being displayed when they are telling the truth and when not.

Bitcoin will become mainstream this year and might even become the default reserve currency.

Longevity: Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year. Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it’s 80 years. The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more that one year increase per year. So we all might live for a long long time, probably way more than 100.

Education: The cheapest smart phones are already at $10 in Africa and Asia. By 2020, 70 percent of all humans will own a smart phone. That means, everyone has the same access to world class education. Every child can use Khan academy for everything a child learns at school in First World countries.

We have already released our software in Indonesia and will release it in Arabic, Swahili and Chinese this summer, because I see an enormous potential. We will give the English app for free, so that children in Africa can become fluent in English within half a year.

[cyclotic]

Your comment made me realize something. I hate driverless. I get carsick in about two minutes if I try to read while riding in a car.

[Lazamataz]

Be sure that your pastor is not AI.

[SamAdams76]

I'll settle for a home coffee maker that makes a perfect cup of coffee.

My wife hates the fact that I spend $20-30 a week on getting coffee at Starbucks, Dunkin Donuts, etc. Every now and then she'll bring home a top of the line coffee maker and I'll use it a few times but it's just not the same.

[Momaw Nadon]

Work: 70-80 percent of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years.

For the sake of argument, let's assume this will be true.

If most people don't have jobs, they will have no income from their labor.

How will people buy stuff with their primary source of income gone?

[Paladin2]

I need a car that can circle the block while I run into some establishment downtown for a few minutes.

[bakeneko]

What a Beautiful World this will be,
What a Glorious Time to be Free..

I’ll believe it when I get my free stuff Spandex Jacket.

[Paladin2]

Never put off until tomorrow that which can be just as well done the day after....

[rlmorel]

Smart phones are definitely a double-edged sword, but the good thing is (at least right now) that you don't have to get cut by the bad side of that sword...it is still a conscious choice.

The good side is, as you stated, and wonderful! Audio books, your whole library, all your music, everything you own, a flashlight...GPS, camera, etc. It is wonderful. All sitting in your pocket. I work in IT, and the phone is a godsend. I use my camera, calculators, various utility applications, and flashlight multiple times every day. And using something like an astronomical program, to make sense out of all those things in the sky, what was that bird you saw...etc. Just astounding.

But I believe there is a bad side. This picture sums it up:

And this one:

I was on a plane a while back, and some woman was having a loud argument with a flight attendant. I became aware that there was a forest of cell phones, held up above seat backs, recording it. As I looked forward towards the loud voices, I could see this swarm of rectangles, each displaying a small video screen showing the same event taking place. There was something I found infinitely creepy about that.

There is a generation of people now who have never seen many wonderful things with their own eyes. They only see things framed through the video capture screen of their phone. They didn't see their kid graduate, their phone did. They didn't see that concert with their own eyes. They didn't see that party, they saw a video.

I love technology, but there is something that is very narcissistically creepy about all this, especially (in my opinion) things like Facebook. Sure, I am a codger, but of all the people in my circle of life, I was the one who was first onboard with this stuff. First computer, first digital camera, first CD player, first digital music player, I had a Newton (three of them)...but when cell phones made it big...I just stopped there. I was the last one to get a cell phone, and when I did get it, it was because it had the list of things you outlined in your post. When the iPhone came out, I was on it for those things. (not to mention that I had been carrying a pager for twenty years, and found I could not use public phones anymore. I used to know where every phone could be found in a five mile radius around where I happened to be at any time, because I had to be able to respond. But one by one, those phones disappeared and stopped working.)

I love technology. I am no Luddite.

But with the cell phone technology...I won't have my face in it during a meal, or when I am with another person. I won't use it in a restaurant or public setting, even on a train. If I have to take a call or make one, I excuse myself and leave to go somewhere I can be alone. I do listen to music and audiobooks nearly constantly, but...I make sure that, in the right situations, I pull my Bose sound canceling buds out so I can hear what should be heard. After all, if you are lying in a hammock and it is pouring rain, why waste it by listening to music?

I don't often frivolously call or text people, and if someone calls or texts me, and I don't want to answer...I don't. But the problem I see is, there are a lot of people who are ruled by the technology.

[Larry Lucido]

Lazamataz
Since May 21, 1999

You’re from the past. How did you get here?

[SakoL61R]

No worries with the naysayers.

My first GPS was a Trimble TNL 7880 (upgraded) in 1991. My first digcam was a Sony FD-73 that used 3.5 floppies. That was1999.

Fast forward to the present. My DJI Inspire flies mapping missions all but autonomously, shoots 12 MP pix, and locks on to 16-17 satellites regularly. Just for fun.

The future of possible only gets better.

[SamAdams76]

I was just playing "The Nightfly" over the weekend. One of my favorite albums. Now that's a little strange.

Ninety minutes from New York to Paris...

[Larry Lucido]

I don’t know who Moore is but I liked the Andrea True song about him (Moore Moore Moore, how do you like it?).

[JoeProBono]

[rlmorel]

Exactly, Rebelbase...exactly.

It has been my experience that if you can imagine a circumstance in your mind, even if it is far-fetched, then not only is it possible that it could happen...it becomes a near certainty.

My brother and I were having one of our usual discussions about technology one night as we drove around in our non-self driving car. I said that I could see the day where your handprint would be all you would need to purchase any product or service anywhere. Want gas? Put your hand on the screen, pump your gas.

We were silent, cogitating on this, and the thought occurred nearly simultaneously with us.

You go up and put your hand there to identify, and before you can pull your hand away, a thing comes out and clamps onto your wrist, seizing you while a mechanical voice tells you that local law enforcement has been notified and will arrive shortly to pick you up because (fill in anything here)

As we passed a closed gas station, I think we both visualized some poor sod standing there in the dark, lit only by a nearby streetlight, with his hand firmly trapped, waiting forlornly to be picked up.

[SamAdams76]

It is a wise man who rules with technology
But it is a fool who is ruled by it.

It is definitely disconcerting to be at a public event and everybody in front of you are looking through their cell phones at the action in front of them.

[rlmorel]

I had a hilarious (to me, at least) experience the first time I ever tried to use a GPS in a car.

I had gone to a conference, and when my flight stopped over in Philadelphia, all flights were grounded. In my haste to get home, I decided to rent a car and drive eight hours to get home. Because there was a rush on cars, the only one available to me was some big, boaty Cadillac type of car, so I took it. It had the first GPS I had ever seen.

I decided to do an experiment.

I wondered, how consumer-friendly is it? Could I figure out how to use it without reading the manual? So, that is what I did. It completely took me 75 miles in the wrong direction! What I didn’t know is that with this primitive model, you had to make sure the thing could communicate with the satellites before proceeding with operation. I blew right past that and put my trust in it...:(

I know, it was stupid, but what I will do in the way of experimentation often causes my wife to roll her eyes at me!

But, as with many things, I made lemonade out of that lemon I picked for myself. I ended up stopping to help a wizened little elderly Italian plasterer whose battered pickup truck was completely broken down. He was dressed in white coveralls, looking sadly into the engine bay. I stopped to help, and ended up driving another hour out of the way (what is another hour when you are already wasting hours?) to bring him to his house, and he invited me in and gave me a beer...:)

Personally, the combination of GPS and those toll passes make long distance driving so much more enjoyable!

[rlmorel]

LOL, who does that Luddite think he is, Einstein or something???

[rlmorel]

Yep. I see a lot of people ruled by it. It even rules me sometimes, but I pick and choose when I let it do that.

I recently read an article about some millennial startup, and they said they were going to have no hard documentation about anything, everything would be in the cloud.

I thought, “Man...what are those snowflakes going to do when the Internets goes away?”

[rlmorel]

I do have to admit, having a self-driving car for commuting would be nice, you could sleep a bit more, and...it would also make partying more fun-no more duty-driver!

[TheConservator]

I have used AirBnB a fair amount, including for travel in Europe. Sometimes great, sometimes just fair, but never had a bad experience.

Used it in 2014 to rent a number of places in our trip through Slovenia, Croatia and Bosnia.

Stayed in a place in Mostar, Bosnia, near the famous Old Bridge, that had an absolutely fantastic view of the bridge. Right on the river, and closer to the bridge than the pictures you will find of it on the internet. It was about $20 a night. Utterly unbelievable value.