You hope for 1.
Possibility 2. is not likely as Cv's are almost impossible to sink outright.
Possibility 3 is the same as 2 but crew can survive and at least can hang on until captured or rescued.
Possibility 4 is a likely scenario if all the damage is above the waterline i.e. multiple missile hits. Fire is a problem and must be contained or put out before towing can begin. Huge target for enemy subs. A sub magnet which can actually be good thing if done right. ASW trap can be set up.
Scenario 5 is the most likely scenario in a missile attack. Although out of service that CV will make it back and fight another day.
Scenario 6 would be if only one missile made it through and hit the CV. She will be back in a short period of time depending on the motivation and stamina of the ships crew.
So there are a lot of scenarios in a hot war so it isn't that simple.
Thanks for that. I did not know that modern carriers were so tough to kill. I think I was subconsciously and wrongly conflating Battle of Midway fragility with modern weaponry.