Somewhere between 40% and 47% of the vote is guaranteed because Democrats are that stupid. They are like sheep who will vote for whom they are told when they are told. But I am betting the p*$$ed off Bernie supporters are going to move that needle closer to the 40%.
Enter the 5% third party person who is supposed to guarantee a Hillary win. He may be like John Anderson of the 1980 election . . . the perfect place to go for those people who can never vote for anyone with an "R" after their name but just can't stand Hillary.
To which I will add that the original purpose of running John Anderson was to siphon votes from Reagan for those so-called “moderate” Republicans. In the end, it worked out exactly the opposite as Anderson did far better in New York and New England than in his home territory of Illinois/Wisconsin.