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To: Steve_Seattle; SunkenCiv; SoothingDave; Nachum; NicknamedBob

Yes. There are several problems with the University of Illinois Cryosphere outputs for Antarctic sea ice.

A few were sporadic - the output cycled wildly up and down, then seemed to stabilize for a few days.

The latest is a “functional” failure that is more serious. Since 5 May, the output of their program that “reports” Antarctic sea ice area is “stuck” reporting an area of 4.6884 million square kilometers of sea ice.

But, to understand what is going wrong on the various graphs and plots you see, you have to understand what is “measured”, was is “reported” and what is “calculated” and what is “plotted”.

So. The Sea Ice anomaly is the difference between the measured value for that date and the averaged value for that date based on the average of 1979-2008 records. So the average for any given date will come frmo the program - NOT the daily measured value, right?

Now, the anomaly for any given date is the difference between the “measured” value (which should change every day if everything is working right between the satellite and the various computers) and the “average” for that date. If the “measured value” for a date is wrong - then everything else that is “reported” will be wrong.

But if the program fouls up, or the program fails to update the measured value, then everything downstream of that point “automatically” fouls up as well. And that is what has happened.

On 9 April, Antarctic sea ice area was apparently correctly reported at 4.732 million sq kilometers (Mkm^2 for short). The difference between the average for that date (4.4598) and the measured value (4.7320) was the correct anomaly 0.3471 Mkm^2. (And “excess” Antarctic sea ice area about 1/4 the size of Hudson Bay - just for comparison).

On 10 April the satellite reported an area of 5.8966 Mkm^2. Way toooo large. A difference overnight of 1.1646 An area the size of Hudson Bay had appeared overnight! Can’t happen = Bad satellite number.
On 11 April, the satellite reported an area of 3.1738 Mkm^2. Waaaaayyyy too small. A difference overnight of 2.7228 An area larger than that of Greenland disappearing overnight? Can’t happen = Bad satellite number.
On 12 April, the satellite apparently behanved itself and reported what “looks like” a rational number again of 4.6760.

On 14 April, it again reported a bad value of 4.8301. We think it is wrong, just not as obviously wrong as 10-11 April.

The next few days look valid. Then on 21-22-23 April, Hudson Bay disappeared again, then re-appeared magically.

29 April? We don’t know. The 6.1198 reported value, and sea ice area anomaly of -0.0813 from an average value of 6.2011 Mkm^2 “might be” correct.

But since 5 May, the “reported” Antarctic sea ice area has NOT CHANGED at all! It has been constant at 4.6884 Mkm^2. And - as you point out above - that is impossible. Today, 17 May, the “reported value” of 4.6884 is still the same.

Now, the Antarctic sea ice anomaly obviously is calculated larger and larger every day as the “average” sea ice area is routinely and regularly increased every day by the University of Illinois program in Cryosphere. Yes, the expensive Global Warming university computer is too stupid to know its output is wrong.

As an intelligent individual capable of thinking for yourself, you have to ignore the graphs and plots until their information is correct.

Links for all this information, and a whole lot that we at WhatUpWithThat maintain are at the following:

Sea Ice Areas, Extents, and Anomalies Arctic and Antarctic
https://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/sea-ice-page/

Discussions (and 1.7 million Comments) about the 3-4 Daily Threads:
https://wattsupwiththat.com


58 posted on 05/17/2016 12:59:34 AM PDT by Robert A Cook PE (I can only donate monthly, but socialists' ABBCNNBCBS continue to lie every day!)
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To: Robert A. Cook, PE
"As an intelligent individual capable of thinking for yourself, you have to ignore the graphs and plots until their information is correct."

Okay, I can do that.

68 posted on 05/17/2016 4:50:57 AM PDT by NicknamedBob (If you can't do something well, you won't do anything good.)
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