Virginia is tough but doable. The big question is whether enough people in the southwest, south-central, and tidewater areas show up to offset the Northern Virginia government leviathan. If so, Trump can win Virginia, but it is hard now with all of the government employees and dependents in Northern Virginia.
Those beltway types are threatened by Trump, and I expect them to vote self-interest.
Jim Gilmore has offered to run Trump's Virginia voter registration efforts. He should take him up on it.