Here, in picture form.
There are many, many 20 and 30 and 40 year and even 50 and 60 year periods where the market experienced losses and some cases ghastly losses. One could not invest in the "DJIA" back then because there were not etfs, nor were there retirement plans, lifespans were shorter (so the "40 year" arbitrary benchmark applies somewhat less) and the DJIA also has "survivor bias", which means (as you surely know) that your investment in Eastman Kodak or Bethlehem Steel (once the largest company on the NYSE), or even GM for that matter which go to zero are replaced by something else.
I will add one last comment on this topic.
From the chart I posted, one can see several things but one thing that is painfully obvious.
To invest long after a robust recovery, at an apparent “peak” into a period of war can be horrific. The absolute worst.
1914-1915 > 1918
1937 > 1942
1965 > 1972
Over and above the chestnut of “dca”, these are jaw-dropping ghastly losses. Sure, if you can stomach them, there is sweetness and light on the other side on a near-infinite timespan.
The market has tripled since SP 666 March 2009. Traders have been betting that rates will rise since “they can’t go any lower”. Those traders have been obliterated over the past 2-3 years. Murdered.
Now we have the concept of negative rates = NIRP. This is a synthetic construct. Nobody knows how stocks will perform under such conditions. Good div payers *should* do well. But there are many shoulds that do not turn out as expected.
