“Ted Cruz will be the presumptive nominee”
4 years is a long time in politics and there is not a great track record of senators becoming presidents. I just think his time was this cycle and he lost. I think there is a “Duncan Hunter” type who will learn from this primary and be ready when the time comes.
The bias among GOP primary voters for someone who’s run before or who has a famous brand name (Bush/Trump) is so strong that I don’t think you can discount it so easily.
He also has 7.2 million votes. Santorum had 3.9 million last time. Romney 4.6 in 2008. McCain 6 in 2000. Dole 2.3 in 1988.
McCain’s % was highest at 31%. The rest were around 20%. Cruz currently has 27%. So as of now it looks like a stronger second place finish than most past runners-up.