“According to our latest polls-plus forecast, Ted Cruz has a 65% chance of winning the Indiana primary.”
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/indiana-republican/
You mean like in south Carolina!
538 gives value to any endorsement from anyone in calculating percentages of winning. Bad model to use. Bobby Knight’s endorsement means a hell lot more to Trump than Pence’s did to Cruz. And Scott Walker’s endorsement means nothing in Indiana.
FiveThirtyEight also still shows Trump at 957 delegates when most other sources are now showing Trump with a 1000 or more. The site isn't being updated as frequently or as thoroughly as it once was. Nate Silver seems to have lost enthusiasm for the project.
That is a bizarre prediction. Their cite shows Trump leading in 6 polls, Cruz leading in one poll that differs greatly from all the others, and they conclude a Cruz victory likely. Hard to swallow, but we’ll see.