Your analysis only ignores that:
1. If immigration continues, the new immigrants will create a permanent Democrat majority with the new votes from immigrants.
2. Trump is the only one even talking about stopping immigration.
That little minor point is the only thing that you missed.
The congress already passed the law to build the wall and fund it. Quite a bit of it is already built, and it has been successful where it is. Obama stopped construction. I don’t have any doubt that Trump or Cruz would start it up again.
The problem though is that cow is already out of the barn. I live in Texas. When my son was born, the nurse took me to the incubators and said let me show you which is yours. I said, I think I got it. Out of the 15 babies in the room, mine was the only non-Hispanic.
Let me offer an anecdote. I work in a two man office. There’s just my self and my secretary, a Mexican-American woman, born in the USA who happens to be the same age as I am.
I got married late, and my wife and I had a son who is now in college. My secretary comes from a very large family. She was the 12th of 13 children. She got married, and had three kids. Her kids now have four kids. Five years from now she may have 10 grandkids.
So my wife and I have grown from two people to three over the last 50 years. My secretary and her husband has grown from two to 11, and it is likely the next four kids born will be born to her family rather than mine as my son is likely to finish college and work a few years before he gets married. I would even say it’s likely that her grandkids may have five kids before my son has one.
Anyway, the demographic bomb has already gone off.
In the 80’s I was always a delegate to the state convention. I had a falling out over the party’s refusal to nominate Mexican-American candidates on the state slate. (Bush paid attention to this. No one else did). We are lucky enough to have every statewide spot filled by a Republican right now. But get a load of this. In a state where a majority of public school children are Mexican-American, this is our current officeholders.
Governor — Greg Abbott
Lieutenant Gov Dan Patrick
Attorney General - Ken Paxton
Comptroller - Glenn Heger
General L:and Commissioner - George P Bush
Secretary of Agriculture Sid Miller
Railroad Commission - David Porter
Railroad Commission - Christi Craddick
Railroad Commission - Ryan Sitton
The Railroad Commission is important to Texas because it is in charge of oil industry regulations. Don’t ask me why.
Maybe the party deserves to die. They certainly have been brain dead to ignore the ballooning Hispanic population which if ignored will extinct them.
One more note. My secretary of course has a huge family with ten living siblings and dozens of aunts, cousins, nieces, etc. They all keep track of each other on facebook. I would guess the family has between 50 and 100 voters on that site. It is an anti-Trump, Trump is the Devil never ending list of insults forum. Every cartoon, insult, caricature against Trump is posted again and again. There’s not a day goes by that there aren’t three insults against Trump. This is a middle class family and my guess is they vote about 50 - 50, but if anyone supports Trump[ on this family thread, they won’t speak up.
Can Trump reach these people? If he can’t he won’t win, and may lose horribly. Dopes he have the organizational skills to even try? He hasn’t demonstrated it yet.