would someone explain why fivethirtyeight.com still has cruz winning Indiana?
The polls plus poll shows Cruz winning 65-35, and the polls only poll show Trump winning 71-29.
Beyond this, I can't say how accurate the shift from such a wide margin polls only result really is. That's a very wide margin to overturn by 538's special sauce.
-PJ
Nate Silver now has Trump with 97% chance of winning Indiana with polls only, and an 83% chance with polls plus.
-PJ