The Trump path to 1,237

MSNBC ^ | 4/22/2016 | Steve Kornacki

[mac_truck]

April 26:

Pennsylvania: Trump leads in every poll and is on pace to win the 17 pledged delegates that will go to statewide winner. The 54 unbound delegates will be selected in the primary and will be free to vote for whomever they want at the national convention. Even if they declare a candidate preference before the convention, they will not be formally bound to it in any way. That said, a large number of them are already committing publicly to supporting whichever candidate wins their congressional district – or at least to weighing the district result heavily in their decision. Trump may have trouble in a few districts around Philadelphia, but his wide poll lead suggests he’s on course to run up wide margins across most of the state. Practically speaking, it may be very hard for an unbound delegate who wins his or her slot by vowing to honor the results in his or her district to wiggle out of that commitment in the face of a Trump landslide. Target: 17 pledged delegates plus 36 unbound

Maryland (38 delegates): Trump leads state by a wide margin and should easily win the 14 delegates that come with a statewide victory. The other 24 are given out by congressional district – three to the winner of each of the state’s eight districts. Target: 32 delegates

Delaware (16): It’s a winner-take-all state and Trump leads big. Target: 16

Connecticut (28): If Trump can break 50 percent statewide, he should sweep state. Currently, Trump is running at 48 percent statewide. Target: 28

Rhode Island (19): Demographically, state is a perfect fit for Trump and should produce one of his largest margins. The bad-news: Its system for delegate allocation is highly proportional, limiting his potential gains. Target: 10

[astrat7]

Man you are bitter....
Sorry but I have watched videos of Trump going back to the early 80’s and he is the same conservative guy he has always been...

[astrat7]

They don’t call Manafort “The Count” for nothing...
He said to Sean Hannity the other night that they have several ways of getting to 1237. He does not look like the kinda guy to BS people.

[mac_truck]

There was a story though that for once Trump had out-hustled Cruz in the PA delegate fight and already had a lot of those 50 wrapped up.

Maybe true, but I think it makes sense to estimate Trump will only get the unbound delegates in districts where he wins the popular vote.

I also think there will be a cumulative effect on voters...making it easier for Trump to win in Indiana for example, after shutting Cruz out in April.

[mac_truck]

There was a story though that for once Trump had out-hustled Cruz in the PA delegate fight and already had a lot of those 50 wrapped up.

Maybe true, but I think it makes sense to estimate Trump will only get the unbound delegates in districts where he wins the popular vote.

I also think there will be a cumulative effect on voters...making it easier for Trump to win in Indiana for example, after shutting Cruz out in April.

[bigbob]

Cruz is still done.

[Jeff Head]

Here's my own prediction I have been working on:

Indiana is a huge key. If cruz can win their, it will make a huge difference.

In the same vein, CA is a major key. If Trump does better thetre, it could easily make up for a loss in IN.

But if Cruz does well in IN and in CA, then he will deny Trump the 1,237. The question will be by how much.

I personally feel that Trump may do better than these results...we will just have to wait and see.

My biggest issue is Novemebr and the GOP avoiding a split resulting over an ugly convention fight that leads to a DNC win. we simply MUST avoid that.

For that reason I sent the following:

My Open Letter to Ted Cruz
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3422900/posts

[precisionshootist]

Cruz staying in is a good for Trump, just as Bernie staying in is good for Hillary. The last thing you want as a candidate in the primary season is be the last man standing early with a full year to go until the election. If you take the competition out early you are going be the only target for negative attacks until the general election and that is a really bad thing. You also have no one to contrast your great ideas, etc etc.

That being said this thing is over and has been over for some time. Cruz has zero chance of being nominated. Only the media and the establishment want you to believe there is still a contest when there is none.

I agree with you on Ted as the VP. There could be no better choice for Trump or for conservatives in general. Trump/Cruz would be the worst nightmare for both the democrats and the GOPe.

I really hope we can get Cruz out next week so the seeds can be planted for Trump and Cruz to come together.

[Trapped Behind Enemy Lines]

A couple of predictions assuming the likely possibility of Trump winning the GOP nomination:

1) He will tack back to the Left and water down most of the conservative positions he took during the primaries.

2) The free ride with media (except among his adoring cheerleaders at Faux News) will come to an end. We all know the national media in this country is a virtual appendage of the Democrat Party. They will rip Trump into pieces and cover up and protect the Clintons like they always do.

3) HRC will win a landslide over Trump as all of the polls currently indicate as women, minorities, and young people will vote overwhelmingly against Trump. Trump will do a far better job of energizing the Democrat voter base than Hillary could ever accomplish.

Get ready for Hillary. Put down your Trump Kool Aid. Wake up and smell the coffee. This Trump cult of personality I see around here is nothing short of mind boggling. Trump is a phony and a fraud and huckster and a conman. He is superficial, vain, egotistical, arrogant and obnoxious. I honestly don’t understand why people find any of his crap so attractive. It isn’t. He’s a thin skinned, vain, vindictive, and petty man. He should never be president of this great country. We are sinking to new lows with each passing year. Trump is one of the lowest of low lifes ever to crawl on this planet. A man who mocks POWs, makes fun of handicapped people, refers to a female journalist menstrual cycle is way too immature to be POTUS IMHO. My twelve year old is far more mature than DT.

[LS]

Wrong, wrong and wrong.

Silly to think the media has given him a free ride. Where the hell do you people get this? He has suffered more adverse media than any candidate in history and stuffed it in their face.

I’ve dealt countless times here with the “negaitves.” They are meaningless and you can see it in the national poll numbers and in the primaries.

He has already BEATEN her in OH in the primary by 35,000 and is ahead in NC, FL, MO, only two down in VA. He can easily beat her in MI-—the primary #s showed that. So, no, there will be no “landslide” unless it is for Trump. It remains to be seen if he can win NJ, PA, MD.

[Trapped Behind Enemy Lines]

Every national poll I’ve seen shows HRC beating DJT by huge margins.

[LS]

You said it. National.

Electoral college elects presidents. Trump has led in NC, FL, beat her by 35,000 votes in OH, is within 2 in VA, has in previous polls been tied with her in PA, can beat her in MI.

This is an EC trouncing.

[unlearner]

Ever hear of the boy who cried wolf?

You credibility to make such assertions was lost after saying the same things thousands of times months ago.

It’s all over for Cruz. It was all over then. It is all over now. But yet he and his supporters did not disappear magically because you said so.

The delusional ones are those who think you do not need Cruz or his supporters. No chance of any Republican winning even against a socialist or a known felon, unless you bring us on board.

And the way to do that is not calling names and hurling insults. It’s by extending an olive branch to us rather than transgenders, homosexuals, illegal aliens, and big government spending advocates.

[Trapped Behind Enemy Lines]

Assuming Trump wins the GOP nomination, I’m predicting a landslide loss of the likes we haven’t seen since 1964.

Trump will carry a small handful of states, if that.

Here in CA, Trump is about as popular as a case of hemorrhoids. If you want to make a quick buck, open up a store that sells Donald Trump piñatas.

[unlearner]

Or not.

[The Toll]

Interesting how Trump is the only candidate with penyatas in his likeness. That’s why it’s so easy to give him my support.

[unlearner]

It’s up to Trump to offer the VP spot to Cruz. And it is up to Cruz to accept it. I wonder if either are willing to do so. But it is the best scenario for both of them, the party (not the uniparty GOPe), and the nation.

I think Cruz does have a shot at winning a second ballot nomination. But what if he does? He cannot win without Trump supporters. How will he get them?

If Trump does not get to 1237, he might offer the VP spot to Cruz BEFORE the convention to close the deal.

Or he might get to 1237. I don’t think he does so by focussing his efforts on belittling Cruz, or supporting non-conservative ideas like homosexual marriage, trangenders having legal privileges to choose their restrooms, raising taxes, or amnesty.

[Parley Baer]

“The 54 unbound delegates will be selected in the primary and will be free to vote for whomever they want at the national convention”

And therein lies the problem with this election system. Way, way too many unbound delegates. This needs to be fixed and get rid of the caucus system while we are at it.

[Not gonna take it anymore]

If Jesus was running, I’d vote for him too.

[Not gonna take it anymore]

Cruz is a terrible choice for VP. How does Trump walk back “LYin’ Ted”

[5th MEB]

HHHMMM; your description of Trump sounds eerily like a description of EVERY POLITICIAN WHO HAS EVER RUN FOR OFFICE.
(Ronald Reagan may be the exception).