I pretty much agree with that. It would have to be a really exceptional conservative candidate or the US would have to be in much worse shape than it is now for a true Conservative to win.
I think it's much more likely that Cruz would lose to Hilary than would Trump. From where I sit in liberal Marin County, my anecdotal "evidence" is that I've heard more than a few longtime Democrats say that they like what Trump is saying about closing the border, jobs, and looking at Muslim immigration. I've heard no support voiced for Cruz.
I meant to also say that I started out as a Cruz supporter with Carson as my second choice. Carson soon showed that he had weaknesses as a candidate, but I still greatly respect the man. Then Trump and Cruz were my top picks. Cruz’s Carson shenanigans in Iowa gave me pause, and since then my respect for him has continued to diminish. I’d vote for the guy, but it would only be a vote to stop Hilary. I started out thinking Trump was a cartoon character buffoon, but I admire him for saying what he thinks despite knowing that it might not go over well or even be a campaign ender (e.g., building a wall, halting Muslim immigration). There are a lot of things I don’t like about him - like the juvenile name calling. But security is my #1 issue and I give it to Trump.