First, when you exclude the vast majority of minorities who will vote for a bucket of warm spit as long as it has a "D" after it's name, then add in the public sector employees (other than cops/fire), and all the lefty college students and Manhatten-ites, the number of "normal people" shrinks dramatically.
But second, people have been saying that about her since 1992, and it hasn't worked. They've tried it in the Senate race, they've tried it since she's been Secretary of State, and none of it has stuck enough to wipe her out.
Certainly Trump enjoys a much greater level of support from Blacks than have previous Republican candidates, and the estimates i've seen place him at around 25% of the Black vote.
Where have you seen those estimates, and on what are those estimates based? Because if you're going off poll numbers, then you've got to take the good with the bad, and the RCP average has Trump losing by 20 to Hillary.
I'm not saying he can't win. I'm just saying that him winning "easily" is a pretty damn bold statement that doesn't seem to have a lot of evidence behind it.
The winning easily comes from running a very successful and pragmatic businessman in an election year where the economy is tanking hard. Hillery tied herself to Obama’s policies while Trump is running on destroying the entire globalist system that's gutting our country.
One of the things that perhaps might lend credence to Trump possibly winning some of those states is the number of ‘normal’ dems that think he might be able to do it. I was surprised when I listened to NPR and a lot of callers were scared of Trump actually beating Hillary because of that. Of course there are also many on the dem side that hope it is Trump because they actually think he is so beatable. So who knows, but it’s not like they have consensus about it.
Freegards
Nationally, if you drain 10% of the black vote from Democrats, you win. If Trump takes 25% of the black vote, he wins outright. As for the Unions of New York, their leadership may urge them to vote for Hillary, but i'm pretty sure a significant chunk of them will ignore that and vote for Trump.
Trump resonates among the former Reagan Democrats in a manner that Hillary simply cannot. I see Trump picking up a huge swath of the New York and Police unions despite the Union Leadership's best efforts to the contrary.
But second, people have been saying that about her since 1992, and it hasn't worked. They've tried it in the Senate race, they've tried it since she's been Secretary of State, and none of it has stuck enough to wipe her out.
But nobody ever before had the ability to put a media focus on it in the manner that Trump can. That makes all the difference.
Where have you seen those estimates, and on what are those estimates based?
Too much water under the bridge for me to go find that now, but I can give you a proxy example of it.
Those two represent an enthusiasm from Black voters that I don't see Hillary acquiring. I've seen other prominent black voters supporting Trump, and among Republican candidates that is almost unprecedented.
After what i've seen over the last six months, I take it as a given that Trump will get a far greater percentage of the Black vote than a Republican candidate normally acquires. The Democrats simply cannot win without their Usual 90-95% of the black vote. They just cannot.
I'm not saying he can't win. I'm just saying that him winning "easily" is a pretty damn bold statement that doesn't seem to have a lot of evidence behind it.
It has evidence behind it, I just don't have the ability to show you all the evidence I have seen in forming my opinion on this. It consists of many things, and not all of which can be condensed into easily demonstrable numbers.
Part of my evidence is my own personal knowledge of demographic tendencies. Both Blacks and Latinos tend to prefer strong male leadership figures to female leaders. Whites do too, but whites tend to be more willing to indulge in egalitarian impulses when it comes to females, so it is harder to predict, but I think a male candidate will have an automatic advantage even among white voters.
I think the left would have to do a massive sales job to overcome this natural tendency.
Giuliani was a Republican and he won in New York. Trump is a Native Son, and he knows how to fight Brooklyn style. Hillary is an incompetent hateful screech bag who is a demonstrably dishonest liar. Trump is going to stomp her into the mud in a New York contest.
If Trump is the nominee, He will take New York. If Cruz is the nominee, Hillary will take New York, but Cruz will still win nationally.