I have told you specifically this several times, Trump does not need 1237 to win on the first ballot. If Trump does not get to 1237 he will be very close and he will have several million more votes than Cruz by the convention. There are hundreds of unbound delegates. If the leadership decides that it would be in the best interest of the party for these delegates to go to Trump, enough of them will.
If the polls are to be believed Trump is beginning to surge and this will no doubt be helped by the thrashing Cruz will be taking in New England. If Cruz's fall from grace continues and it most likely will, the leadership will see no advantage in pushing a candidate with a very narrow base who they do not like ahead of the front runner who will most likely have several million more votes by the convention and proven crossover appeal.
One thing we do know for sure is that the chance of Cruz getting the hundreds of additional delegates that he would need to reach a majority of delegates on the 2nd, 3rd, 4th or 5th ballot are very low. This is because once Cruz has served his purpose as a tool in the leaderships attempt to deprive Trump of delegates, his usefulness to the party leadership will be gone, kaput, vaporized. It will be the same as when Romney supported Kasich in Ohio and immediately switched to Cruz in Utah. Cruz will need more than the operatives that he has managed to install as Trump pledged delegates. He will need hundreds of GOP insiders as well. Anyone who believes that the GOP leadership has any loyalty at all to Cruz is delusional.
Many of us like to think that the leadership of the GOP is stupid. They may be calculating, deceitful, and immoral, but they actually are not stupid. Their instinct for self-preservation is actually quite strong. I do not see any circumstance where the insiders will feel that Cruz will be the one most likely to preserve their power. And this is a compliment to Cruz, because I do not like the insiders or the way that they are currently using Cruz.
What we are currently witnessing with the leadership assisting Cruz in his "voterless" landslides is actually just a demonstration to help keep Trump under control. They are working to get him to agree to conditions that will help keep him under their control if he wants the nomination. This is all part of the negotiation. Cruz is just a hapless pawn. His entire campaign has been infiltrated by party insiders that he has no control over. They are simultaneously using him and destroying his reputation and career in politics. He most likely will not win a second term in the Senate and if he tries to run for the presidency again, his candidacy would make Santorum look like a superstar. Like him or not it is over for Cruz in this and in future elections. He is done.
A big difference between Cruz and Trump is that Cruz radiates no sense that he loves the people. Cruz is using the rules to win in some states. He is impressed with himself, and he thinks this makes him look smart. By complaining about voterless victories, Trump is communicating to the voters that he loves them and therefore wants them to have a voice.
A big difference between Cruz and Trump is that Cruz radiates no sense that he loves the people. Cruz is using the rules to win in some states. He is impressed with himself, and he thinks this makes him look smart. By complaining about voterless victories, Trump is communicating to the voters that he loves them and therefore wants them to have a voice.
A lot of those "unbound" delegates are the automatic delegates (the state party chairman and RNC members) - do you think they will be Trump votes? And Cruz has been working diligently to get his supporters selected for even the "unbound" delegate spots. So I think the pool of potential delegates for Trump is smaller than you think.