Cruz UNDERPERFORMED in his adopted home state, getting a sickly win with 44%.
Sen. Ted Cruz R-Texas. (AP Photo/Jose Luis Mahana
Cruz’s Texas win marks lowest home state support in 104 years
By PAUL BEDARD (@SECRETSBEDARD) • 3/2/16 10:05 AM
Sen. Ted Cruz’s victory in his home state of Texas, dubbed huge by many in the media, was the worst showing by a Republican candidate in a home state since 1913, according to a new analysis.
On Super Tuesday, Cruz won 43.7 percent of the vote, besting Donald Trump who won 26.7. But the average primary showing by Republican candidates who won their home state in the last 100 years has been 78.5 percent, according to the Smart Politics blog from Center for the Study of Politics and Governance at the University of Minnesota’s Humphrey School of Public Affairs.
“To be sure, the Texas U.S. Senator’s victory in his home state – and the most delegate rich state on the primary calendar thus far – was crucial for the Cruz campaign, and avoided an embarrassment that might have pressured him to withdraw after Super Tuesday,” wrote Smart Politics’ Eric J. Ostermeier.
But, he added, “While Cruz escaped that unenviable situation, his victory in Texas is decidedly shy of impressive.”
At least he won his state, though. The report notes that some GOP presidential candidates lost their home state, but still won more vote than Cruz. In 1980 in Texas, for example, resident George H.W. Bush won 46 percent of the vote to Ronald Reagan’s 53 percent.
The highlights from Ostermeier’s latest Smart Politics report:
A Smart Politics analysis finds that Ted Cruz’s 43.8 percent showing in Texas marks the lowest support ever recorded by a Republican presidential candidate in a home state victory out of more than five-dozen campaigns to win their home state since 1912.
The previous low water mark was set 64 years ago by former Minnesota Governor Harold Stassen when he won just 44.4 percent of the vote in 1952 ahead of a write-in campaign for Dwight Eisenhower that netted 37.2 percent.
Cruz became just the sixth GOP presidential candidate to carry their home state with a plurality of the vote joining Henry Ford of Michigan in 1916 (47.4 percent), Warren Harding of Ohio in 1920 (47.6 percent), Harold Stassen of Minnesota in 1952 (44.4 percent), John McCain of Arizona in 2008 (47.2 percent), and Newt Gingrich of Georgia in 2012 (47.2 percent).
The average primary showing by Republican candidates who won their home state over the last 100+ years has been 78.5 percent, with 46 of these 61 GOPers winning at least 60 percent of the vote.
One record Cruz did not set on Tuesday is the narrowest home state victory margin in Republican Party history. That mark still belongs to Michigan’s Henry Ford with his 3.0-point victory over U.S. Senator William Alden Smith in 1916.