Umm. There’s not a single Congressional District in that Optimus Poll that has anyone other than Trump in the lead by at least a 10% margin.
So I don’t know how you get there when Cruz is at 14.
I also don’t know how you get to that breakdown with how NY allocates.
It’s going to be bleak for Cruz. He’ll likely end up with 2 or fewer delegates.
For the Cruz camp, it’s no longer how many he gets, it’s how many trump doesn’t get. If trump gets 1237 before the convention he wins. If he doesn’t and it’s an open convention, Cruz wins. It’s that simple.
I am definitely going against the polling data, here. Like I say, if I am wrong on Wednesday, I expect to hear it from all of my FRiends.
One thing about polling, however...
If I was less of a stubborn cuss, I might be inclined to tell an unfamiliar pollster over the phone that I was voting for Donald Trump even though I have no intention to do so. With all of the loose talk about threatening delegates and violence at the convention coming from the Trump campaign, I might just say that I support Trump to avoid trouble.
When a pollster calls your house, he has your name, phone number and address. If I suspected the pollster might actually be connected to the Trump campaign, with their well known tendencies of threatening violence, I would not want to annoy such a person who has my name, telephone number and address.