The key difference here is Cruz will not win at the convention. The GOP establishment hates him as much as they hate Trump. They’re using him to get one of their own installed at the convention.
You are proving my point about your statement.
.
Cruz will win.
The Establishment doesn’t have to like him, he is their meal ticket in this election. He proved that in Wisconsin, in a big way.
The markets have this scenario as tied.
I would put the probability of a Cruz 2nd ballot plus win at 45%.
There is a real arbitrage opportunity here if you think the probability is zero.