“Kasich 10, Trump 40, Cruz 50 “?
I know polls can be wrong, but the 4 most recent have Trump constantly over 50 and growing; and the surrounding state polls validate that. I come from MA and his 49% win there came early on in the season and to me shows he has grown his support in the NorthEast. So no, personally, I don’t think Ted can break through in New York.
Most of it is not his fault; his message doesn’t fit the electorate in NY. But the NY Values dig will hurt him in NY and NJ and if he ever does become the nominee, in Florida. I’m surprised he doubled down on it. He is driving away voters he would need in FL.
Like you said, I guess we will see. :)
After looking at some more drilled down polling, you may be right about NY. Cruz may not even do well upstate or out west.
I still think he will keep Donald from 1237 and win on the second roll call. This is where I’m at...
Tr-Cr-Ka
NY 59(64)-21(16)-15 - I took away 5 because you are probably right
CT 16-6-6
DE 16-0-0 - guarantee
MD 32-6-0
PA 17-0-0 - guarantee
RI 10-3-5
IN 6-51-0
NE 0-36-0 - guarantee
WV 25-9-0
OR 12-13-3
WA 20-24-0
CA 69-91-12
MT 0-27-0 - guarantee
NJ 51-0-0 - guarantee
NM 11-13-0
SD 0-29-0 - guarantee
Withdrawn Candidates 187
Unaffiliated Delegates 139
Trump 1092
Cruz 870
Kasich 184
The winner-take-all guarantees left go 84-Trump 92-Cruz. The battle will be for the proportional or semi-proportional states.
870 + 140 of the withdrawn + 100 of the unaffiliated + 50 from Kasich + 130 who left Trump = 1290 on the second roll call.
That is my prediction. You will either be laughing at me or applauding me come July.