If Trump and Cruz split the remaining delegates, they will enter the convention with:
Trump: 1154 (-83)
Cruz: 920 (-317)
If Trump offers Kasich the VP slot, he will pick up 66 delegates**, reducing his margin to 17.
Can Trump convince 17 uncommitted delegates to vote for him? A potential president has a lot of carrots to dangle in front of people. There’s no doubt he could close that gap.
** It’s my understanding that the Ohio rules state that if the winner (Kasich) drops out, then all his delegates go to the 2nd place finisher (in this case Trump). So, the only thing Kasich has to do to force the Ohio delegation to vote for Trump on the 1st ballot is to officially drop out of the race before the actual 1st ballot at the convention. Would Kasich do that to become VP? In a heartbeat.
Cruz’s only hope is to block Trump on a 1st ballot. That probably also means offering Kasich the VP slot. So, it’s really comes down to what Kasich thinks.
1) Does Kasich think he will have a better chance winning with Trump or Cruz?
2) Does Kasich think Cruz can secure the nomination after the 1st ballot (remember, nobody else will probably promise Kasich the VP slot; if Kasich believes the convention will go with not-Cruz after the first ballot, then his best (only) chance to become VP is to back Trump.
No matter how you do the math, it looks like Trump will enter the convention with a gap small enough that it can be bridged with Kasich & carrots.
They won’t even consider splitting until the second vote at convention...this is where the GOP could slide their guy in and neither of them will let that happen.
Everything you just said.... except with Rubio’s 171 delegates.
Rubio said yesterday that his delegates should go to a Conservative, and that Cruz is the only Conservative left in the race. (Remember, they teamed up to attack Trump that one debate.)