“Reuters poll, one third of Republican voters who support Donald Trump could turn their backs on their party in November’s presidential election if he is denied the nomination in a contested convention.”
I would guess that at least 1/3 of Trump’s supporters were not active Republicans last election.
Looking at the polling data it seems that Trump has about 30 to 32 % of the traditional republican votes. he brings in around 8 to 10 percent new non-traditional voters, the very same “Reagan democrats” that he republicans need to win. That is around 6 million votes near as I can figure.
So Trump has a potential of 61 million (republican base) plus ~5.5 to 6 million new voters from disaffected citizens and cross over democrats. 66.5 to 67 million, of which 1 to 2 million will have been pulled out of the democrat 65.9 million core. Very doable if the rank and file support him.
That said if he is nominated without Cruz supporters he losses a few million votes, which means he crashes and burns too.
The fact is we need a Trump/Cruz 2016 team, with Cruz 2020. Both sides get something. Anything else at this point looks like a loss, which will mean the only way of going back to a conservative America is through a civil war or worse.
Now I know Cruz folks are might keen on their guy, but consider this: Cruz has a better chance of doing some real socially conservative fixes if he is riding on top of a wave election, not a narrow win. If Trump can solve the immigration issue, do something to bring jobs back and get the country in a hopeful state, it will be like the 1984 election in 2020. Cruz would be a shoo-in for the presidency, and might achieve something long term to turn things back in regards to issues important to social conservatives.
If Cruz goes for the gold this year with the situation we have in the primary now, one must conclude he is blinded by ambition. His appeal to an entire cohort of disaffected republicans and working class votes needed for a republican victory is very very small. In the case of the working class, lower than Hillary, who does not promise to raise the retirement age to 70. His advocacy of that will be enough to keep his cross over volts very low, if any at all.
Trump is also damaged, without someone who the social conservatives feel has standing. He needs Cruz.
In any case I think the only path to victory is a dual ticket, Trump on top, Cruz as prez in 4 years.
looks like it is more like 25 %
I would guess that at least 1/3 of Trump’s supporters were not active Republicans last election.
Trump got 1.1 million votes in FL. The kenyan won by 80k. Do the math, Einstein. Cruz isn’t winning FL in a general.