Trump and Clinton maintain big leads in New York’s looming primary

Washington Post ^ | Apr. 10, 2016 | Philip Bump

[Innovative]

Five big states are left on the presidential calendar, four for the Republicans and four for the Democrats. The significance of those states differs for each party, of course — Donald Trump will be scrambling to cobble together enough delegates to win while Hillary Clinton will be hoping to close the door on Bernie Sanders once and for all. But as we outlined last month, the states are largely the same: New York, Pennsylvania and California — plus New Jersey for the Democrats and Indiana for the Republicans.

Trump and Clinton have long been favored in New York, the home state (adopted in Clinton's case) of each. In the new Fox survey, each still has a big lead.

Trump gets 54 percent of the vote to 22 for John Kasich. Ted "lol New York values" Cruz is in third, with 15 percent.

That Trump tops 50 percent is key. If Trump gets 50 percent of the vote in the primary, he gets all of the state's at-large delegates, and three delegates in each congressional district that he wins with 50 percent of the vote. If he's below 50 percent, statewide or in the congressional districts, he splits the delegates, too. And for a guy scrambling to hit the 1,237-delegate mark to clinch the nomination, that counts. It's why he canceled plans to campaign in California so that he could hold down the fort at home.

[Talisker]

Donald Trump will be scrambling to cobble together enough delegates to win while Hillary Clinton will be hoping to close the door on Bernie Sanders once and for all.

Really? Instead, how about "Hillary Clinton will be scrambling to cobble together enough delegates to win while Donald Trump will be hoping to close the door on Ted Cruz once and for all."

Spin, bias, thought control, all right there in one sentence. The anti-Trump, pro-Hillary reporting has become ridiculously obvious. Anyone who still doesn't see that this is all run by and for the Clintons, against the one person they are truly afraid of (and it's not Ted), is in serious denial.

[Innovative]

I agree. The only one Hillary is afraid of facing in the general election is Trump, so the Dems are trying to do everything so Trump won’t be the R nominee.

GOPe is in bed with the Democrats for a Hillary presidency.

See:

Tech billionaires (major Dem donors) plot with GOP leaders at exclusive island resort to stop Trump

http://nypost.com/2016/03/08/tech-billionaires-plot-with-gop-leaders-to-stop-trump-at-exclusive-island-resort/

[Gasshog]

Trump will take Hillary Rotten apart piece by piece.

Any other R candidate would just lob softballs at her and end up getting destroyed.

Go Trump - Were gonna have fun fun fun this Summer!

[ex-snook]

Cruz visits the Bronx, gets booed, and the Daily News advises him — on its front page — to take the F U train.

[onyx]

Vote Trump

[napscoordinator]

I literally think McCain will vote for Hillary. They are good buddies afterall. Hopefully after she loses they can start a losers club. They can have Cruz and bush join too.

[cookcounty]

Why CRUZ was smart to go to the BRONX: Pretty much the only Republicans in that Congressional District (and there are darn few of them in the Bronx), are Pentecostal Carribeans .

A) No churches are more "political" than the Pentecostals. They are very active. It was not a rally, it was a luncheon with 60 hispanic pastors. They like Cruz. B) If Cruz can get 5% of the total voters of the District, he will win all 3 delegates in the district (Remember, there are no crossovers, it's a closed primary, deadline to re-register was last month). If he gets 3%, he will still get 1 or 2. Cruz and his wizards are playing chess, while Trump's Chumps are still playing Chukkars, …...or whatever it is they are doing in the Delegate Contest.

[cookcounty]

Upstate New York is more like Wisconsin than New York City.

They frequently complain about downstate values. They know darn well what Cruz meant. -—And sometimes they have “hate in their face. “

The polls have consistently understated Cruz’ support. In the most recent, in Wisconsin, they had Cruz at 32, and 32 and then 35 until the day before when it was at 40, ——and then the actual result was 48. So the idea that Trump will sweep the state is more than a little far-fetched. Sure, Trump will get 90% of Manhattan’s delegates (might be tough to find loyal ones, haha) But there will be lots of districts where Trump fails the majority, and very possibly, a few where he ends up third and gets skunked.

95 NY delegates: big, but not that big: let’s see, since AZ,: Utah, then North Dakota, then Wisconsin, Colorado, and now Wyoming: 40+25+45+37+29 = 139, and Trump gets what, 3 of them? No, 2 confirmed, actually. ..and Trump will only be up 180 going into NY (the last 18 of Wyoming’s are not yet in RCP’s count or anyone else’s), not the 300+ he recently had.

[Talisker]

Why CRUZ was smart to go to the BRONX: Pretty much the only Republicans in that Congressional District (and there are darn few of them in the Bronx), are Pentecostal Carribeans. A) No churches are more "political" than the Pentecostals. They are very active. It was not a rally, it was a luncheon with 60 hispanic pastors. They like Cruz. B) If Cruz can get 5% of the total voters of the District, he will win all 3 delegates in the district (Remember, there are no crossovers, it's a closed primary, deadline to re-register was last month). If he gets 3%, he will still get 1 or 2. Cruz and his wizards are playing chess, while Trump's Chumps are still playing Chukkars, …...or whatever it is they are doing in the Delegate Contest.

LOL, "Pentecostal Carribeans." In other words, Puerto Ricans. And "If Cruz can get 5% of the total voters of the District, he will win all 3 delegates in the district." No, no, no - if Cruz can win only ONE VOTE, he will win the ENTIRE PLANET, because of how the caucus delegate Rule 94836 works after 10pm on alternate Thursdays! FOOL! Cruz has already WON! He's the CHOSEN ONE, to sacrifice the country at Hillary's pointy-toed shoes! Bwahahahaha! Trump is DOOOOOOOOOOOOMED!

[plewis1250]

I would hope so...

Though Trump’s patheticly disorganized campaign may manage to screw it up yet...

[BagCamAddict]

Can anyone explain this math to me?

CNN news article on my phone today about current poll numbers in New York says:

Clinton 53% over Sanders 37% by 16 points

But in a general election, the poll said:

Clinton would beat Trump by 16 points

and

Sanders would beat Trump by 19 points

This math doesn’t add up for me.

If Clinton beats Sanders in the primary by 16 points, then how does Sanders beat Trump by more than Clinton beats Trump in a general?

What demographic is switching?

[MacMattico]

I'm upstate. Lots of Cruzers. I am voting Cruz as is most of my family. A few Trumps mixed in.

[Trump20162020]

The polls have consistently understated Cruz’ support.

Like they did in Arizona? I don't recall Teddy being down 22 points in any poll there.

95 NY delegates: big, but not that big

A lot bigger than the 36 delegates Cruz won in Wisconsin, and his supporters and media acted like was the biggest thing ever.

let’s see, since AZ,: Utah

I like how you include Utah "since Arizona", when they voted on the same day.

and Trump will only be up 180

"Only". I bet Cruz wishes he was leading by "only" anything.

the last 18 of Wyoming’s are not yet in RCP’s count or anyone else’s

Likewise, the AP and those that use their numbers have not included the twelve delegates Trump won in Missouri by winning the statewide there. They're waiting for the results to be officially certified on April 15 to do so.

not the 300+ he recently had.

It'll be over 300 by the time April is finished. Cruz is going to get massacred in New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Maryland, Connecticut and Delaware. He's in last place in NY, PA and MD right now... maybe he can end up in last place in RI/CT/DE too and finish the loser sweep.

Either way, it's pretty pathetic his only April primary win is going to be Wisconsin. If this was anyone other than Trump in front of him, the media calls to quit would be deafening. He's hundreds of delegates behind, and millions of popular votes too.