Posted on 04/09/2016 5:15:51 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Reuters headlines its story about this poll, “Exclusive: Blocking Trump could hurt Republicans in election.” Which is accurate, although it’s just as accurate that nominating Trump could hurt Republicans by alienating #NeverTrumpers (as well as many, many, many swing voters). All of that is old news, though. Republicans have understood for months that some small but important chunk of the party is walking away after the convention no matter who the nominee is.
The real takeaway here is just how many Trumpers say they’re willing to stick with the party this fall even if Trump gets shafted in Cleveland. I never would have guessed it’s as high as 66 percent. In fact, I would have guessed at this point that half or more of Trump’s fans would boycott the general election even if Cruz beat him fair and square in the remaining primaries to get to 1,237 delegates before the convention. It’s Trump or bust for his famously loyal fans, and if the bust involves, ahem, “theft” at the convention, then it’s war — supposedly. If you believe Reuters, that’s all wrong. The most devoted third of Trump’s supporters will walk but the others are ready, however grudgingly, to line up for Cruz and beat Hillary.
That’s not a poll of Republicans generally, it’s a poll of Republicans who support Trump. And still, 66 percent are prepared to vote for a non-Trump nominee. Granted, that number doesn’t include pro-Trump independents, who’ve been showing up for him in open primaries all spring. Many of those voters will be goners in November, as any Trump fan will eagerly tell you. The question, though, in weighing Cruz’s electability against Trump’s isn’t limited to how many new voters Trump’s unorthodox coalition might bring to the party. It’s also a question of how many current Republican voters would be alienated by either of them. Cruz will turn out Republican Party regulars, which means he’ll likely start with most of Romney’s 2012 base intact. Trump will, in theory, turn out plenty of GOP irregulars, but the thing about irregulars is that they’re unpredictable. You don’t know how many you can count on, and in the meantime many regulars whom you normally do count on will head for the hills. Adding five million votes from people who didn’t back Romney in 2012 doesn’t help if it costs you seven million votes from people who did. (Unless the first group is based mostly in swing states while the second second group is based mostly in safe states, which is statistically unlikely.) Jonathan Last runs through some math:
But the Trump-wins-by-turning-out-white-Republicans theory breaks down fatally when you look at where Trump is with every other group. In order to claw his way into the poor position he’s in with white voters, Trump has cheesed off every other demographic group: He’s minus-53 with self-described moderates; minus-62 with voters age 18 to 34; minus-71 with Hispanics.
In order to beat Hillary Clinton, Trump has to outdo the Romney 2012 numbers. But even if he does better among white voters—and right now it looks like he’ll do worse—it does no good if he can’t stay at Romney’s level among other groups. And Trump is poised to do much worse than Romney with just about everyone else.
He’s already viewed unfavorably in national polls among non-college-educated whites and white men, who are supposed to favor Trump so heavily that they’ll turn out in record numbers to help him overcome his deficit with various other groups. And Last makes another good point: Although Trump’s numbers did improve dramatically among Republicans soon after he entered the race last summer, they haven’t improved much since then. He hit 30 percent in a national poll for the first time at the end of last August, less than three months after he announced his candidacy. Seven months later, he’s only managed to add 10 points or so to that number in most primaries while watching his numbers sink among the rest of the electorate. “That shows you how hard it is,” writes Last, “for a candidate to convert marginal voters who aren’t naturally part of their coalition.” How does Trump get from the mid-30s among Republicans, where he’s been spinning his wheels for months, to the low 50s with the general electorate in the span of about four months when everyone already knows who he is and has a strong opinion — typically very unfavorable — about him?
That’s not the only fantasy math happening in Trumpworld either. Data journalists tracking the delegate fight are laughing at this quote:
“Our target date is June 7, but our goal is in the middle of May to be the presumptive nominee,” Paul Manafort, Trump’s newly installed convention manager who has been given broad authority to shape the campaign going forward, said in a wide-ranging interview here…
“After Wyoming, [Cruz] is done,” Manafort said. “We’re going to have our act together. We’re going to start putting numbers on the board and that will become infectious.”
There’s just no way Trump will be in a position to clinch by mid-May, says Nate Silver, even if he sweeps everything between now and then. Breitbart, the most prominent pro-Trump site on the Internet, guesstimated a few days ago that he’ll still be 50-100 delegates short even after the final primary in California in June 7th. Thanks to the rout engineered by Team Cruz for Colorado’s delegates at the state convention, Trump now needs to win 60 percent of the delegates the rest of the way to clinch before the convention at a moment when the non-Trump vote in the primaries is consolidating behind Cruz. What Manafort’s doing with this comment, I assume, is signaling that he’s going to try to not only woo the unbound delegates that are still out there but to peel away many that have already committed to Cruz, which would bump up Trump’s total behind the scenes. That’s mighty ambitious, though, given just how much disorganization among state volunteers and campaign staff he’s going to need to sort out. (Yikes.) He’s been brought in, basically, to conduct an orchestra, except that half the orchestra’s missing and the other half doesn’t know how to play their instruments. What’s that going to sound like?
In lieu of an exit question, here’s your thought for the day. As the man himself would say: Sad!
Isn't it a shame that the person who will have by far the most delegates and many millions more votes than anyone else, me, still must fight
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 9, 2016
I am and WILL be a kamikaze voter!!! Anyone who thinks fr a minute Trump voters WILL just vote Cruz or Kasich is CRAZY!!! WE WILL destroy the GOP!!! WE WILL make sure these BASTARDS lose their seats, EVERY damn one of them!!! TRUMP is and has been our FU vote and they THINK we will hold our nose again and come around to them, NOT NO, BUT HELL NO!!!! Cruz made a HUGE mistake by jumping in bed with them WE will NEVER accept him as our nominee!!!
I’m with you both!
I’ve always voted for the eventual nominee, Dole, McCain (UGH), and that Romney guy the GOPe crammed down our throats the last time. I rationalized that it was better than the alternative and was miffed at those who sat out.
I’ve now joined their ranks. I’ve had it with those that think they’re our betters. They aren’t, they’re ganged up on us for their “buddies.”
This is now an open revolt against the “elites.” I’ve enlisted for the duration......
TRUMP for his simple goals....
A wall to remind all of our Sovereignty. Restrict ALL immigration.
Bring back our companies/jobs create new jobs/industries.
Reign in the PC nonsense that is chocking our nation.
Make Free Trade....Fair Trade.
Simple, but obviously necessary goals that will take much work to achieve given entrenched special interests. He’ll need our help.
To me the only “Special Interest” is the American PEOPLE.....We the People. That is the crux of it all. Trump is the only one that seems to understand that.
I still believe Trump will get the 1237 but after watching Judge Jeanine today also sadly convinced the GOP mobsters will still deny Trump anyway and give the nomination to Kasich. She has a convincing argument that it’s Kasich. In her reasoning of the moving goalposts and no rules, Trump and Cruz could combine forces and the GOPe would still deny them. I’ll be writing in Trump’s name for the GE if he’s not on the ballot. I could really care less about the under ballot as I wouldn’t consider myself a Republican anymore. We will be stocked up on pitchforks and ammo at my house for the forthcoming revolution.
We are going to see alot of outrage at both parties if they ram down Kasich and Hillary as the two candidates in the GE. Soros NWO stuff.
That is a fact, hotair is so transparent I take nothing they write as truth.
So, in the end if this report is legit, which I doubt it is..the Trump voters are reasonable and not willing to have hillary the traitor rule our country.
Where the never Trump crybabies would rather burn it all down...got it!
And they say we’re the thumbsuckers?! Bwahhhahah
Hell yeah, that is what we need. That will show them
AND another thing for sure.
A tRump supporter never ever saw a negative poll on tRump that he or she believed or that was factual.
Never.
They have always been rigged or came from a place that was a paid shill for the other campaign.
Never ever from an honest polling place that used pure data.
NEVER EVER. Poor lil tRump, everyone is after mama's boy and his comb over or not.
So, if Cruz is spoiler nominee, we lose 3% of our voters....
“66 % seems like a bogus number...”
No kidding, around here it’s more like 10% maybe 15%. I’ve
never seen so many people willing to cut off their nose to spite
their face. If we lose this election it will be at the hands
of the jilted Trumpists. They say their goal is to win Back
the White House yet they are willing to throw us all under
the bus if they cant have their way.
The triumph of emotion over common sense is liberalism.
“If he manages to STEAL the nomination on the second ballot, will go on to lose and lose in a spectacular fashion.”
So if Cruz ends up on the ballot, they will help elect
Hillary just so Cruz loses in a “spectacular fashion”?
That’s some pretty smart thinking there. Sounds like this
Trump fanaticism is some sort of power trip. It’s like’
“If I cant have everything my way, I’m going to do my
best to screw everyone else over, including myself”.
Yea, that’s some pretty smart thinking there I tell ya.
Kinda’ sounds like Cruz fanatics?
The GOP doesn’t care if Hillary wins. They can flourish as the opposition part of the Uniparty.
If Trump gets the nomination, look for a substantial effort by the GOP to elect Hillary.
Hillary is a fellow crook, they can work with her. Trump might actually call them on the crap they’ve done.
I am not part of the 66%.
That sort of battered voter syndrome is what the GOP is counting on to keep us suckers from walking away.
The GOP may beat us conservatives bloody almost every day, but they sure talk purty around election time.
If the GOP defies the will of the voters as represented by the popular vote and delegate count at the start of the convention, then it deserves to crawl away and perish unmourned.
Correction: If we lose this election it will be at the hands of jilted Cruzbots who failed to steal the nomination at the Convention.
There, fixed it.
Thank you! I've been equating CruzBots to battered wives who refuse to leave their husbands.
That's EXACTLY what they are. Battered GOP-E voters who refuse to leave their abusers.
So 34% or more don’t vote R resulting in house and senate loss.
GoPe knows this, Trump will be the nominee. That’s been the case since FL and OH beat down Cruz took, by 1,000,000 votes.
Prediction.
GoPe was stupid to lose their base, but their not complete idiots, all this contested convention drama, nothing more than negotiating tactic, and a smart one by GoPe to gain some influence in picking VP, and having some control over Trump. We’ll see how he responds.
Cruzers can condole themselves with outside chance at VP, and he’ll definitely endorse Trump, after all he’s already sold his soul to GoPe.
“many I know will dedicate the rest of their political lives to destroying the former Grand Ole Party.”
It once was grand, but now it’s just old. It’s morphed into this status quo
thing!
They’ve become fat and happy in their government lot in life. Satisfied with all the self importance and the booming job market in bureaucracy. There’s money money money money ...in government work.
Along comes this independent Trump who’s all about bringing it in on time — or sooner, and under-budget.
It appears Mr. Trump is at cross purposes with the grand party of old.
66 percent? Dream on. If they deny Trump with their delegate games, my vote in the Florida primary will have been the last vote I ever cast, period. They have made a complete mockery of the process and have given we the people the middle finger. As I enter retirement, it breaks my heart that the corrupt politicians are handing my kids and grandkids a banana republic.
Who are they polling? I cannot believe I’m in a minority in this issue.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.