Donald Trump has already qualified and I think Cruz has as well or is on the verge and probably will qualify. It is inconceivable that Kasich or anyone else could qualify and therefore the battle will be limited to Cruz and Trump rendering it impossible for the GOP establishment to parachute in a ringer like Paul Ryan.
However, is not entirely clear whether the rule can be freely amended by the rules committee but the weight of opinion seems to indicate that it can be changed by that committee at any time prior to the convention or even during the convention. I further understand that the proposed change of the rule, which we would fear because it would open the way for a GOPe candidate besides Trump or Cruz, must be approved by the delegates as a whole, or their representatives.
Please accept that my understanding in this matter is tentative. It appears that the rules committee is made up of delegates which are chosen by delegates who presumably would be controlled for the most part by Trump and Cruz together. I further understand that the acceptance of a change in the rules would be done by representatives of the delegates who would, again presumably, be controlled by Trump and Cruz with two from each state.
I am subject to correction on this understanding. But if it holds, it would behoove both Trump and Cruz to coordinate opposition to any amendment to the rule of eight.
My understanding from what the RNC stated is there are NO rules for 2016 yet. They have yet to be created. Its custom to make the threshold 1237 but as of now unless the new Rules committee confirms that for 2016 it can be anything; the same with Rule 40 (b) it does not exist yet.
Thus the Rules committee is what the GOPe is really focusing on and ensuring they control the output. Many of the old return delegates are saying they are for Trump or Cruz but are still party insiders.
My first thought when said Rule 8 was that’s the rule for Federal court pleadings hence my confusion.