Oh there's a lot missing from that analysis. You are talking about a Republican primary, and one in which there were multiple candidates, not just two. Both things matter a great deal.
There was only one Trump in those races and he has a certain kind of appeal. But if you were going to vote for someone else there were multiple people to pick from. The not Trump vote was split. It won't be in the general.
Also, we already know that most people do not like him. His negatives are the highest of any candidate in recent history, and the only one that competes with Hillary in that department. Most people that will vote in the general have the good sense to recognize that he has almost no redeeming qualities, and that being a thoughtless outsider is not sufficient qualification to be President.
That's why polls consistently show him doing the worst against Hillary. Yes, we know those numbers won't be the same by November, that's not the point. His numbers are worse than any other Republican. That's the point. There's no reason to think that will change.
No nuance needed.
It’s math and emotion.
“Trump annihilated Cruz in FL and OH, by 1 million voters, Cruz was done that night”. Have to win those to states in the general, only Trump can now do that. There are no mystery candidates anywhere and Cruz has already been rejected.
Trump won the hearts of those 1,000,000 voters, they’re hardcore and ain’t going any where. His rally’s draw tens of thousands of people. GoPe boots him, they loose senate and house seats, and we loose a party and country.
Have you not been paying attention.
Fantasy polls of future match ups are just that fantasy, only matters when they’re head to head. Surely you know this.