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Trump should be entering friendly territory in his home state. The GOP-e does not have the infrastructure it has in Wisconsin, due to the overwhelming Democrat dominance. Although Wisconsin, like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and, in the last two election cycles, Ohio, regularly votes for the Democrat in Presidential elections, the GOP often holds the governorship and one or both houses of the legislature. New York has had only one Republican governor, Pataki, in the last 30 years, and the Democrats dominate the legislature, as well as the Federal congressional delegation. Lacking the ability to perform favors for financial contributors and provide patronage for supporters, the New York GOP elite is weak and less able to thwart Trump.

Long Island is a good place for a Trump rally. The largest population element are whites of Italian, Irish, and mid-European ancestry. The demographics include a higher than average proportion of people over 50. These are the children and grandchildren of the New York City residents of the early and mid-20th Century. They are from family backgrounds similar to Trump's own. Nassau and Suffolk Counties have not done well economically compared with the rest of the New York metro area or the coastal Northeast in general. The area never recovered fully from the post-Cold War loss of much of its aircraft industry. It recently lost its NHL franchise, and many of its young people have moved to Manhattan, Brooklyn, and more distant points. As a result, Long Island should be an area hospitable to Trump.

Thank you for your very informative post.

I would just feel much better if the gope would get out of the way.

Excellent post! Upstate NY should also be Trump Territory.