While I agree that it is becoming unlikely that anyone will get the 1,237. As things currently stand, it is mathematically impossible for Cruz and Kasich, and mathematically highly-improbable-to-the-point-of-being-impossible for Trump. Thus, this means a Contested Convention.
Where I do not agree is that Cruz will win it. Why? Simply because the GOPe have a strong hold over the Convention process, and they simply do not like Cruz much. While they abhor Trump more, the GOPe has never been enamored of Cruz and prior to Trump's rise Cruz was their public enemy numero uno. The moment the contest now gets to a Brokered Convention, it is over for Cruz. The GOPe will put one of their own, and the chances of them giving it to someone they have hated since he rose to national politics (Cruz) is about the same level as them handing it to Trump.
Zero chance.
Think about when Romney was telling people to vote for Cruz where Cruz is ahead, and Kasich/Rubio where they are ahead. He did not come out and say he supported Cruz, or that Cruz was a great candidate and good Conservative, or that he was behind him for president. Not at all. Simply saying that voting for whoever was leading was the best way to 'stop Trump.'
The GOPe absolutely detests Cruz because he doesn't fit their mold, and an organic way to see this is to note that before the Trump-Cruz fight filtered down to FR, turning brother against brother, Cruz was the clear FR favorite before Trump's rise. There is a reason that he was a favorite, and that reason is anathema to the GOPe.
Anyway, let me stop writing and simply say this. If Cruz wins the nomination based on the outcome of a Contested/Brokered Convention, I will be extremely surprised and shocked. Happy, since I believe Cruz is better than the GOPe and definitely better than Hillary, but exceedingly shocked. I just don't see how the GOPe could finally manage to get the nomination process 'back in their hands,' and then let it go to Cruz. Impossible, and I almost never use that word.
Impossible.
Trump won all or nothing primaries with about 35% of the votes. That means the delegates who represented the 65% who voted AGAINST him still have to vote for him on the first ballots in Cleveland.
Then they are free to vote for whoever they wish.
Florida requires their delegates to vote for Trump three times.
That is why I predict Cruz winning the nomination on the fourth vote.
Not only that, a lot of Trump people will sit out an election where the candidate coming to the convention with the most votes and most delegates is denied by the party.
A fair amount see no real difference between the D’s and R’s, other than the window dressing we see and the speed of going to Hell in a handbasket.
I’d vote against Hillary, but if the GOP convention chose someone who ends up beating her, I’d expect to get screwed hard post election when it comes to the big issues of immigration, trade and national security.
Obama may have been our national suicide, and this election is simply the body twitching.