If he can’t win Wisconsin, where he now trails by 5%, Pennsylvania, where he is neck and neck with Kasich, or California, where Cruz is now only 1% behind, he comes in to the convention well short of the number of delegates needed and will not get the nomination.
RCP
New York Pennsylvania California
Trump 54.5 Trump 34.5 Trump 34.3
Cruz 11.5 Kasich 20.0 Cruz 26.0
Kasich 9.5 Cruz 18.5 Kasich 15.8