Given the by district nature of the CA primary a close numerical race is the worst news Trump could get.
You are the only one here in touch with reality. CA is 55 distinct winner take all primaries. In 54 primaries there are only 3 delegates to be taken.
The odds are that Kasich will win 1 or 2 primaries and 3 or 6 delegates. Cruz and Trump will each win a significant number (if election were this week). Nobody can predict which will win more.
Let me know the current March 2016 ground game in each district and that will determine the Cruz turnout. Cruz averages thousands of donors per district. If they are out knocking on their neighbors doors in March and April and May and June then Cruz wins.