Now only Donald Trump has a viable path to 1.237 delegates

HERE ON FR | March 23, 2016 | Jeff Head

[Jeff Head]

AFTER MARCH 22ND, ONLY DONALD TRUMP
has a viable path to winning the nomination through the Primary Process

Some people are saying that the Utah caucuses were fraudulent.

I do not believe they were. They were caucuses...and Cruz has always had a better ground game in most of the caucus states.

On the other hand, Trump has typically not done as well in Caucus states.

But in the end, Utah will not matter. Here's why:

Even though Trump has lost several primaries with relatively low percentages, overall Trump is still winning big time.

• Kasich won 1 contest
• Rubio won 3 contests
• Cruz has won 10 contests
• Trump has won 20 contests

So, for every "one" of the ten victories Ted likes to talk about stringing together, Trump can show two victories to every one of Ted's.

Folks, these are simply the facts.

Last night Trump took AZ and all 58 delegates, and so despite losing the 40 delegates in UT, he still increased his delegate lead by another 18 delegates, which means he now has 741 delegates and is almost 300 delegates in the lead.

So, while UT was a big win for Cruz, it was not any kind of fatal blow to Trump...and despite it, for the night, Trump continued to increase his lead.

And here's the clincher that nobody seems to be focusing on.

Cruz HAD to win AZ last night in order to have any viable path to the total delegates needed for the nomination.

But he lost AZ.

So, Ted right now is at 461 delgates. He needs another 775 to get to the 1,237 number.

But there are only 763 delegates left to win.

As of last night, Cruz CANNOT win enough delegates through the primary/caucus voting to win the nomination.

Trump, on the other hand, only needs 496 of the remaining 763 to clinch. That means he needs about 2/3rds of the remaining delgates.

It's not a sure thing, but I believe he most definitely can do it.

Let's do a little math and look at one path.

One Trump Path to the nomination:

Let's say Trump wins all of NY (95), and then these winner take all states: MT (27), SD (29), NE (36), and NJ (51).

Then let's say he wins 140 of the 172 in CA (and he may take them all). All of that gives him 378 delegates.

Let's say he wins 60% or RI (19) CT (28) and DE (16). That would be 37 delegates there.

Then proportionally, let's say he under performs and only wins 40% of the delegates in IN (57), WI (42), WA (44), WV (34) OR (28), NB (36) and NM (24). That's 102 delegates.

All of that, for those remaining 16 states, would give Trump another 502 delegates. Add that to his 741 and you end up with 1,249 delegates and he is over the top.

IMHO, this is a somewhat pessimistic forecast of what Trump might do.

Either way, it clearly shows that Trump has a viable and realistic path of sewing up the delegates and nomination before the convention.

In fact, as of last night, he is the only one who can.

---

Summary:

Finally, the GOPe may seem to be willing to back Cruz right now. But they are only doing so to try and deny Trump the nomination.

If they can successfully deny Trump the delegates, they will turn on Cruz in a heartbeat and in a brokered convention seek to throw him to the curb and bring in a GOPe approved candidate...and say to hell with what the people wanted.

And they will not care that they defy the voters and destroy any chance to win in the fall. This whole cycle has revealed that about the GOPe, which many of us suspected, but which they are now revealing in spades.

Ted Cruz is the man who can stop this.

I repeat my appeal to Ted Cruz, who has been my first choice throughout the primaries.

My Open Letter to Ted Cruz
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3410747/posts

Senator Cruz, DO NOT Allows the GOPe to co-opt you and your campaign.

As soon as your and Trump's combined total of delegates surpasses the 12,37 number, endorse Trump and throw in with him.

By so doing you will:

Unite the GOP behind Donald Trump and yourself, the two anti-GOPe candidates who have won an absolute majority of the vote and the delegates.
• Deal a much deserved body slam blow to the GOPe...which is exactly what the people are voting to do.
• Create a ticket that will absolutely destroy Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders in November.
• Create an administration that can restore American greatness and quality.
• Create a potential for 16 years of principled, all-American leadership of the United States, and in the world

I hope and pray Cruz will make the right decision.

As I say, in the end, it very well may be that Trump can win any way.

But how much better it would be if he was able to do so resoundingly and in the process, unite the party despite the best efforts to the contrary of the GOPe.

[HarleyLady27]

http://redstatewatcher.com/article.asp?id=11962

Lastest delegate account

[1Old Pro]

So, Ted right now is at 461 delgates. He needs another 775 to get to the 1,237 number. But there are only 763 delegates left to win.

Cruz said yesterday that Kasich was mathematically eliminated and as such should drop out - will Ted take his own advice?

[wiseprince]

Hermes a dirty little secret. Even if it goes to a convention Trump is going to win. Imagine you go to the convention needing 50 votes. There is a pool of almost 300 delegates that are unbound to pull from. They have to steal it from him, it’s the only way they’ll win

[Ingtar]

You missed Colorado and American Samoa.

[conservative98]

Cruz cannot get to 1237 so Mark Levin seems all in for a contested convention now. smh.

https://twitter.com/marklevinshow/status/712631467218587649

[wiseprince]

9 unbound delegates. They can go to anyone who meets 40(b)

[Kaisersrsic]

Another piece of the analysis that may not go as planned for Trump is NY. Each Congressional District has 3 delegates and Trump needs 50%+ in each District to get all 3. He may get 50%+ state-wide, which would give him 14 at-large delegates. But, I can’t imagine he gets 50%+ in every congressional district. I think it is reasonable to expect Trump may get 80 of the 95 NY Delegates (i.e., he gets 49% or less in 15 districts).

I think that the entire rationale for Kasich staying in the race is to help prevent Trump from getting 50%+ across all of these NY Congressional Districts and perhaps in some of the other proportional States that turn into winner-take-all if one candidate gets >50% .

[cincinnati65]

So Cruz just as well change his name to "Not Trump", and Kasich should just get out of the race now.

Imagine the ads.

Hello, I'm Ted Cruz, candidate for the Republican Presidential Nominee, and I'm NOT Donald Trump.

[austinaero]

“Cruz cannot get to 1237 so Mark Levin seems all in for a contested convention now. smh.”

I suspect that’s what we’re in for. We are going to see all of the Trump haters who swore they would not be for a contested convention, all of a sudden be ok with it.

Very sad.

[kara37]

Where are you getting 763 remaining delegates?

I think because some remain uncommitted.

[conservative98]

Weeks ago when it was still looking good for Cruz, Mark said if they try to take it from Trump or Cruz, he would leave the Republican party or something like that. Then when Rubio started being pushed, he asked his audience if they would be ok with a Cruz/Rubio ticket. Now that Rubio is out and Cruz has no chance, he is pushing a contested convention on his program and his social sites. Like you said, very sad.

[Biggirl]

Plus also any time there is a terror attack, it is going to help Mr. Trump bigtime.

[wiseprince]

hahahaha. You think he’ll goto the convention 1 pledged delegate short and won’t win on the first ballot? There will be a pool of 300+ unbound delegates to choose from. Some of them will be Trump supporters all ready just not pledged. I think you should read up on the process. They’ve basically got to steal it from Trump for him to lose now. The first ballot will either have just him in nomination or him and Cruz. Cruz will have to pick up 4-6 hundred delegates on the first ballot for him to win on the first ballot (not actually mathematically possible). If it gets to the second Ballot the GOPe will have more than enough sway to pull Cruz supporters away so that they do not vote. They’ll basically just manipulate the vote until it gets to about the 5th ballot where they will get another candidate (not Trump or Cruz) and delegates will start moving to that 3rd person. TRYING to make Trump’s wife look like a whore is not the way for him to move forward at this point

[major-pelham]

I did the same thing at 5am today. I did diferently. I see 839 left to get Cruz needing 772 - Trump needing 498. I see Trump with every delegate in NY CT RI WV and NJ for 227 more with Trump only needing 271 from ND WI DE MD PA IN NE OR WA CA MT NM SD. EZ Peezy. It’s over and Cruz is being used as a tool. More details if you want to chat about it.

[Jim W N]

Colorado and American Samoa events are passed already. 839 is the count for future primaries/caucuses.

[magua]

What is Ted’s burn rate. If your losing and using other peoples money how long will they invest in a loser?

[CreviceTool]

Thank you!

[DesertRhino]

As usual. Jeff is the voice of reason.

[odawg]

How does Limbaugh still claim that Cruz can win? Cruz is obviously only trying to stop Trump. It is the strategy of the Sea Island globalist clique.

[WhiskeyX]

” if Trump will privately commit to nominating Cruz for the vacant SCOTUS position as the first nominee.”

Unacceptable, not another John Roberts to perpetuate the Obama agenda under a faux Republican front.