If its a contested convention, Trump has fewer delegates to woo than anyone, so its easier for him to close the deal. And Cruz people aren’t as hostile to him as you would think to read these threads.
On the other hand, Trump people are a bit crankier and so a contested primary that puts Cruz to the top would have to be believably fair, and even at that they need for Trump himself to acknowledge its fairness or else you would have a rebellion and the whole thing implodes.
In the current climate Cruz can’t win a contested primary without Trump’s endorsement... as odd as it may sound. So these would be some very interesting negotiations; I’d love to be a fly on the wall. Again, since Trump is the master negotiator, and his people are particularly loyal to him personally, he has the advantage even if Cruz puts together a winning coalition.
The winner at the end of it needs for his opponent’s supporters to support him willingly. Both Trump and Cruz face that hurdle. Neither can win without the sincere support of the other’s partisans.
If anyone other than Trump or Cruz was brought into the mix, even Cruz people walk out. So again, while GOPe dreams of substituting Paul Ryan or someone, it can’t happen unless they are prepared to burn down their own house and see GOP die right before their very eyes.
I will say one more thing. Trump does attract more cross-over votes from Democrats and unaffiliated independents than Cruz will. If Cruz comes out on top, that block of votes becomes much harder to reach. That’s something to consider when putting together the winning coalition.
Though I prefer Cruz for many reasons, I think Trump has it.
Brilliant analysis.....