I’m just looking at the RCP polling data. It’s there for everyone to see. Cruz +0.8 over Clinton. Trump -6.3.
Could the polls all be wrong? Sure. Is that likely? No.
If we went by them we would have had Jimmy Carter for two terms, President Kerry, and John McCain. I much prefer watching where a candidate comes from, and how their trajectory has been in the primary, and how scrappy they are.
In spite of these polls, Hillary is a horrible candidate. Cruz isn't horrible, but he's got limited appeal, He might still win because she's just so awful.
Trump has shown he will fight them, overcome various obstacles, beat the media, and win. He's the only candidate since Reagan from the GOP that has shown he can form a narrative and beat the media.